COL⇄CIN

COLCOL Jeff Bridich net +$0.8M net +0.1

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $24M expected surplus · +$1.6M realized received 1.8 ± 3 expected · 0.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved COL's 2021 odds 1% → 1% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jameson HannahOF·23y·L/L

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#50 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Robert StephensonP·28y·R/R

+$0.4M+$0.4M± $11M exp surplusrealized +$1.6M 0.5± 1 exp WARrealized 0.5

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.32/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.0/yr over 1.3 season

Talent

0.15/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

CINCIN Dick Williams net −$0.8M net -0.1

received +$4.8M+$4.8M ± $25M expected surplus · +$0.8M realized received 2.3 ± 3 expected · 0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CIN's 2021 odds 21% → 20% (-1.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jeff HoffmanP·28y·R/R

+$2.4M+$2.4M± $13M exp surplusrealized +$0.8M 1.0± 2 exp WARrealized 0.4

Prior

#9 overall draft pick → 0.56/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.0/yr over 1.3 season

Talent

0.28/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs × 0.88 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Case WilliamsP·19y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#110 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.