RRosternomics
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Reds CIN

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President of baseball ops: Dick Williams · GM: Nick Krall

Overview

REBUILD → steady
cheap & losing · year 6 in this regime · payroll 0.96× league · TAB -1.3
-1.3TAB — talent above budget17th/30
-6.4WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)22nd/30
5.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars17th/30
-3.9dead WAR — sub-replacement drag8th/30
38%dead money %16th/30
0.463win %19th/30
32.4roster fWAR16th/30
-18surplus $M (value vs cost)14th/30
$124Mpayroll $M14th/30

Roster

CFNick Senzel 96GPhillip Ervin 25GScott Schebler 24G
LFJesse Winker 72GPhillip Ervin 61GJosh VanMeter 47G
RFAristides Aquino 54GJesse Winker 18GPhillip Ervin 17G
SSJose Iglesias 144GFreddy Galvis 110GJosé Peraza 39G
2BJosé Peraza 78GDerek Dietrich 58GKyle Farmer 41G
3BEugenio Suárez 158GKyle Farmer 12GJosh VanMeter 6G
1BJoey Votto 133GDerek Dietrich 21GKyle Farmer 18G
STARTERSSonny Gray 4.6WARLuis Castillo 3.8WARAnthony DeSclafani 2.3WARTyler Mahle 1.4WARTrevor Bauer 0.7WAR
CTucker Barnhart 102GCurt Casali 67GKyle Farmer 15G
DHJoey Votto 4GJosh VanMeter 2GDerek Dietrich 2G
BULLPEN★ Raisel Iglesias 34svAmir Garrett 22hMichael Lorenzen 21hDavid Hernandez 12hRobert Stephenson 11hZach Duke 4hLucas Sims 3hMatt Bowman 0h
CTucker Barnhart 102 · Curt Casali 67 · Kyle Farmer 15
1BJoey Votto 133 · Derek Dietrich 21 · Kyle Farmer 18
2BJosé Peraza 78 · Derek Dietrich 58 · Kyle Farmer 41
3BEugenio Suárez 158 · Kyle Farmer 12 · Josh VanMeter 6
SSJose Iglesias 144 · Freddy Galvis 110 · José Peraza 39
LFJesse Winker 72 · Phillip Ervin 61 · Josh VanMeter 47
CFNick Senzel 96 · Phillip Ervin 25 · Scott Schebler 24
RFAristides Aquino 54 · Jesse Winker 18 · Phillip Ervin 17
DHJoey Votto 4 · Josh VanMeter 2 · Derek Dietrich 2
SPSonny Gray 4.6 · Luis Castillo 3.8 · Anthony DeSclafani 2.3 · Tyler Mahle 1.4 · Trevor Bauer 0.7
BP★ Raisel Iglesias 34 · Amir Garrett 22 · Michael Lorenzen 21 · David Hernandez 12 · Robert Stephenson 11 · Zach Duke 4 · Lucas Sims 3 · Matt Bowman 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2019 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Sonny Gray 29 FA-elig 344.6 7.5 +7.4
Eugenio Suárez 27 arb 1594.3 7.3 +6.9
Luis Castillo 26 pre-arb 323.8 0.6 +11.9
Anthony DeSclafani 29 arb 312.3 2.1 +5.3
Tanner Roark↔ OAK 32 FA-elig 212.0 6.8 -0.1
Jose Iglesias 29 FA-elig 1461.8 2.5 +3.5
Aristides Aquino 25 pre-arb 561.5 0.2 +4.8
Tyler Mahle 24 pre-arb 271.4 0.6 +4.1
Michael Lorenzen 27 arb 1051.3 1.9 +2.3
Yasiel Puig↔ CLE 28 FA-elig 1001.2 6.5 -2.5
Raisel Iglesias 29 arb 681.2 5.7 -1.8
Tucker Barnhart 28 arb 1141.0 2.9 +0.5
Robert Stephenson 26 arb 570.9 0.6 +2.4
Phillip Ervin 26 pre-arb 940.9 0.4 +2.6
Nick Senzel 24 – 1040.8 0.4 +2.3
Joey Votto 35 FA-elig 1420.8 25.0 -22.4
Curt Casali 30 arb 840.8 0.9 +1.6
Jesse Winker 25 pre-arb 1130.8 0.6 +1.9
Trevor Bauer↔ CLE 28 FA-elig 100.7 3.8 -1.4
Derek Dietrich 29 FA-elig 1130.6 0.1 +2.0
Amir Garrett 27 pre-arb 690.5 0.6 +1.0
Kevin Gausman↔ ATL 28 FA-elig 150.4 4.5 -3.2
David Hernandez 34 FA-elig 470.4 2.5 -1.3
Lucas Sims 25 pre-arb 240.4 0.2 +0.9
Matt Bowman 28 pre-arb 270.3 0.3 +0.8
R.J. Alaniz↔ SEA 28 – 80.3 0.1 +0.8
Alex Blandino 26 pre-arb 230.2 0.6 +0.2
Freddy Galvis↔ TOR 29 FA-elig 320.2 0.9 -0.2
Ryan Lavarnway 31 – 50.2 0.0 +0.6
Cody Reed 26 pre-arb 30.1 0.0 +0.4
Christian Colón 30 pre-arb 80.1 0.0 +0.4
Josh VanMeter 24 – 950.1 0.4 -0.0
Kyle Farmer 28 pre-arb 970.1 0.6 -0.3
Brian O'Grady 27 – 280.1 0.1 +0.2
Joel Kuhnel 24 – 110.0 0.1 +0.0
Keury Mella 25 pre-arb 20.0 0.1 +0.0
Jared Hughes↔ PHI 33 FA-elig 47-0.0 1.4 -1.4
Alex Wood 28 FA-elig 7-0.1 9.7 -10.0
Jimmy Herget 25 – 5-0.1 0.1 -0.5
Juan Graterol 30 pre-arb 6-0.2 0.2 -0.7
Sal Romano 25 pre-arb 12-0.2 0.1 -0.8
José Peraza 25 arb 141-0.3 2.8 -3.7
Zach Duke 36 FA-elig 30-0.4 2.0 -3.2
Matt Kemp 34 – 20-0.6 14.5 -16.6
Scott Schebler 28 arb 30-0.6 0.6 -2.7
Scooter Gennett↔ SFG 29 FA-elig 21-0.7 4.9 -7.1
Wandy Peralta↔ SFG 27 arb 39-0.7 0.5 -2.8

Key additions (new vs 2018)

PlayerfWAR
Sonny Gray4.6
Tanner Roark2.0
Jose Iglesias1.8
Yasiel Puig1.2
Nick Senzel0.8
Trevor Bauer0.7

Key subtractions (gone from 2018)

Player2018 fWAR
Billy Hamilton1.8
Matt Harvey1.4
Adam Duvall0.9
Dylan Floro0.4
Kyle Crockett0.2
Mason Williams0.2

Current & Historical Payroll

2019 payroll
$124.2M
2020 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2019, 2019–2025. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2019; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (8)

PlayerAgeSvc2019202020212022202320242025
Joey Votto3511.027$25.0MFREE AGENT
Matt Kemp3412.049$14.5MFREE AGENT
Scooter Gennett296.000$4.9MFREE AGENT
David Hernandez3410.000$2.5MFREE AGENT
Jose Iglesias296.036$2.5MFREE AGENT
Zach Duke3614.000$2.0MFREE AGENT
Jared Hughes336.162$1.4MFREE AGENT
Freddy Galvis296.021$871kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (14)

PlayerAgeSvc2019202020212022202320242025
Alex Wood285.123$9.7MFREE AGENT
Sonny Gray295.061$7.5MFREE AGENT
Eugenio Suárez274.061$7.3MARB 3FREE AGENT
Tanner Roark325.055$6.8MFREE AGENT
Yasiel Puig285.102$6.5MFREE AGENT
Raisel Iglesias293.154$5.7MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevin Gausman284.151$4.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Trevor Bauer284.158$3.8MARB 3FREE AGENT
Tucker Barnhart284.075$2.9MARB 3FREE AGENT
Anthony DeSclafani294.062$2.1MARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Lorenzen273.159$1.9MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Curt Casali303.151$950kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Derek Dietrich294.151$100kARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Lavarnway313.001$30kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (25)

PlayerAgeSvc2019202020212022202320242025
José Peraza252.141$2.8MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Schebler282.132$625kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jesse Winker251.080$580kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Mahle241.018$570kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Amir Garrett271.099$568kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Robert Stephenson261.049$565kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alex Blandino261.000$558kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Farmer280.129$558kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Castillo261.101$558kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Wandy Peralta272.010$473kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Senzel240.000$448kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Phillip Ervin260.162$370kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh VanMeter240.000$364kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Bowman282.102$269kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Lucas Sims250.110$230kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Juan Graterol301.051$224kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Aristides Aquino250.009$179kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joel Kuhnel240.000$137kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jimmy Herget250.000$125kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sal Romano251.081$125kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian O'Grady270.000$122kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
R.J. Alaniz280.000$88kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Keury Mella250.065$81kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Christian Colón302.095$42kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cody Reed261.067$9kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Reds 2019; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.