HOU⇄CIN

HOUHOU James Click net +$1.6M net +0.3

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $22M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved HOU's 2021 odds 88% → 89% (+0.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Luke BerryhillC·23y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#384 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

CINCIN Dick Williams net −$1.6M net -0.3

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $23M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 0.4 ± 3 expected · -0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CIN's 2021 odds 21% → 20% (-1.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Cionel PérezP·25y·R/L

−$1.6M−$1.6M± $23M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.4± 3 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.2/yr over 0.5 season

Talent

0.09/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.