LAD⇄CIN

LADLAD Andrew Friedman net +$8.0M net +1.7

received −$0.8M−$0.8M ± $24M expected surplus · +$8.0M realized received 1.3 ± 3 expected · 1.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved LAD's 2018 odds 94% → 95% (+0.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Dylan FloroP·27y·L/R

+$0.9M+$0.9M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$8.8M 1.0± 2 exp WARrealized 1.8

Prior

#422 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.3/yr over 0.4 season

Talent

0.24/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.80 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Zach NealP·29y·R/R

−$1.4M−$1.4M± $13M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 0.3± 2 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

#527 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.0/yr over 0.7 season

Talent

0.13/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs × 0.50 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

CINCIN Dick Williams net −$8.0M net -1.7

received +$4.0M+$4.0M ± $30M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 2.5 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CIN's 2018 odds 3% → 3% (-0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

James MarinanP·19y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#130 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Aneurys ZabalaP·21y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.