RRosternomics
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Reds CIN

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President of baseball ops: Dick Williams · GM: Nick Krall

Overview

REBUILD ↗ rising
cheap & losing · year 5 in this regime · payroll 0.75× league · TAB -4.8
-4.8TAB — talent above budget21st/30
-11.1WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)23rd/30
5.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars21st/30
-4.6dead WAR — sub-replacement drag15th/30
46%dead money %24th/30
0.414win %23rd/30
25.8roster fWAR21st/30
-9surplus $M (value vs cost)12th/30
$98Mpayroll $M23rd/30

Roster

CFBilly Hamilton 150GScott Schebler 16GMason Williams 10G
LFPhillip Ervin 39GJesse Winker 34GDilson Herrera 11G
RFScott Schebler 86GJesse Winker 47GPhillip Ervin 33G
SSJosé Peraza 156GAlex Blandino 11GCliff Pennington 5G
2BScooter Gennett 142GAlex Blandino 21GDilson Herrera 13G
3BEugenio Suárez 143GAlex Blandino 15GPhil Gosselin 8G
1BJoey Votto 139GBrandon Dixon 27GTucker Barnhart 11G
STARTERSLuis Castillo 2.0WARMatt Harvey 1.4WARAnthony DeSclafani 0.8WARSal Romano 0.6WARCody Reed 0.5WAR
CTucker Barnhart 118GCurt Casali 38GTim Federowicz 14G
DHScooter Gennett 3GJesse Winker 3GJoey Votto 2G
BULLPEN★ Raisel Iglesias 30svAmir Garrett 21hJared Hughes 15hDavid Hernandez 15hMichael Lorenzen 8hWandy Peralta 7hAustin Brice 3hJackson Stephens 0h
CTucker Barnhart 118 · Curt Casali 38 · Tim Federowicz 14
1BJoey Votto 139 · Brandon Dixon 27 · Tucker Barnhart 11
2BScooter Gennett 142 · Alex Blandino 21 · Dilson Herrera 13
3BEugenio Suárez 143 · Alex Blandino 15 · Phil Gosselin 8
SSJosé Peraza 156 · Alex Blandino 11 · Cliff Pennington 5
LFPhillip Ervin 39 · Jesse Winker 34 · Dilson Herrera 11
CFBilly Hamilton 150 · Scott Schebler 16 · Mason Williams 10
RFScott Schebler 86 · Jesse Winker 47 · Phillip Ervin 33
DHScooter Gennett 3 · Jesse Winker 3 · Joey Votto 2
SPLuis Castillo 2.0 · Matt Harvey 1.4 · Anthony DeSclafani 0.8 · Sal Romano 0.6 · Cody Reed 0.5
BP★ Raisel Iglesias 30 · Amir Garrett 21 · Jared Hughes 15 · David Hernandez 15 · Michael Lorenzen 8 · Wandy Peralta 7 · Austin Brice 3 · Jackson Stephens 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2018 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Eugenio Suárez 26 arb 1434.4 2.5 +12.5
Scooter Gennett 28 arb 1543.5 5.7 +6.4
José Peraza 24 arb 1573.1 0.6 +10.0
Joey Votto 34 FA-elig 1453.1 25.0 -14.5
Luis Castillo 25 pre-arb 312.0 0.6 +6.3
Billy Hamilton 27 arb 1531.8 4.6 +1.4
Matt Harvey↔ NYM 29 FA-elig 241.4 4.2 +0.7
Jared Hughes 32 FA-elig 721.3 2.1 +2.2
Jesse Winker 24 pre-arb 891.2 0.5 +3.5
David Hernandez 33 FA-elig 571.1 2.5 +1.2
Scott Schebler 27 arb 1071.1 0.6 +3.1
Adam Duvall↔ ATL 29 arb 1050.9 0.5 +2.7
Michael Lorenzen 26 arb 550.9 1.3 +1.7
Anthony DeSclafani 28 arb 210.8 0.9 +2.0
Sal Romano 24 pre-arb 390.6 0.5 +1.5
Cody Reed 25 pre-arb 170.5 0.5 +1.2
Amir Garrett 26 pre-arb 660.5 0.5 +1.2
Dylan Floro↔ LAD 27 – 250.4 0.1 +1.2
Tyler Mahle 23 pre-arb 240.3 0.5 +0.6
Raisel Iglesias 28 arb 660.3 5.2 -4.0
Kyle Crockett 26 pre-arb 150.2 0.1 +0.7
Phillip Ervin 25 pre-arb 780.2 0.5 +0.1
Mason Williams 26 pre-arb 510.2 0.2 +0.4
Matt Wisler↔ ATL 25 pre-arb 110.1 0.1 +0.4
Alex Blandino 25 – 690.1 0.5 -0.1
Tim Federowicz↔ HOU 30 – 50.1 0.1 +0.3
Kevin Shackelford 29 pre-arb 50.1 0.5 -0.3
Curt Casali 29 pre-arb 520.1 0.4 -0.2
Tucker Barnhart 27 arb 1380.0 4.4 -4.4
Zack Weiss 26 pre-arb 10.0 0.5 -0.5
Wandy Peralta 26 pre-arb 59-0.0 0.6 -0.7
Aristides Aquino 24 – 1-0.0 0.0 -0.2
Dilson Herrera 24 pre-arb 53-0.1 0.3 -0.5
Robert Stephenson 25 pre-arb 4-0.1 0.2 -0.4
Jesús Reyes 25 pre-arb 5-0.1 0.1 -0.3
Gabriel Guerrero 24 – 14-0.1 – –
Homer Bailey 32 FA-elig 20-0.1 21.0 -21.3
Blake Trahan 24 pre-arb 11-0.1 0.1 -0.4
Phil Gosselin 29 arb 20-0.1 1.2 -1.6
Yovani Gallardo↔ TEX 32 FA-elig 3-0.1 0.2 -0.6
Lucas Sims↔ ATL 24 pre-arb 3-0.1 0.0 -0.5
Devin Mesoraco↔ NYM 30 FA-elig 18-0.2 2.8 -3.4
Preston Tucker↔ ATL 27 arb 17-0.2 0.1 -0.7
Rosell Herrera↔ KCR 25 – 11-0.2 0.0 -0.7
Jackson Stephens 24 pre-arb 29-0.2 0.5 -1.3
Kevin Quackenbush 29 arb 10-0.3 0.7 -1.7
Cliff Pennington 34 FA-elig 16-0.3 1.5 -2.5
Tony Cruz 31 – 9-0.3 0.1 -1.2
Brandon Dixon 26 – 74-0.3 0.3 -1.5
Keury Mella 24 pre-arb 4-0.4 0.1 -1.3
Brandon Finnegan 25 arb 5-0.4 0.6 -2.0
Austin Brice 26 pre-arb 33-0.5 0.5 -2.1
Tanner Rainey 25 – 8-0.5 0.1 -1.8

Key additions (new vs 2017)

PlayerfWAR
Matt Harvey1.4
Jared Hughes1.3
David Hernandez1.1
Anthony DeSclafani0.8
Dylan Floro0.4
Kyle Crockett0.2

Key subtractions (gone from 2017)

Player2017 fWAR
Zack Cozart4.2
Blake Wood0.5
Scott Feldman0.4
Deck McGuire0.2
Asher Wojciechowski0.2
Jake Buchanan0.0

Current & Historical Payroll

2018 payroll
$97.5M
2019 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2018, 2018–2024. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2018; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (7)

PlayerAgeSvc2018201920202021202220232024
Joey Votto3410.027$25.0MFREE AGENT
Homer Bailey329.017$21.0MFREE AGENT
Devin Mesoraco306.028$2.8MFREE AGENT
David Hernandez338.084$2.5MFREE AGENT
Cliff Pennington3410.000$1.5MFREE AGENT
Yovani Gallardo3210.108$163kFREE AGENT
Tony Cruz316.105$67kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (11)

PlayerAgeSvc2018201920202021202220232024
Scooter Gennett284.071$5.7MARB 3FREE AGENT
Billy Hamilton274.028$4.6MARB 3FREE AGENT
Tucker Barnhart273.075$4.4MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Harvey295.072$4.2MFREE AGENT
Eugenio Suárez263.061$2.5MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jared Hughes325.162$2.1MFREE AGENT
Phil Gosselin295.000$1.2MFREE AGENT
Anthony DeSclafani283.062$860kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevin Quackenbush293.015$690kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Preston Tucker273.000$99kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tim Federowicz303.022$59kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (35)

PlayerAgeSvc2018201920202021202220232024
Raisel Iglesias282.154$5.2MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Lorenzen262.159$1.3MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Schebler271.132$580kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Finnegan252.107$578kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
José Peraza241.141$570kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Wandy Peralta261.031$558kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Castillo250.101$555kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Austin Brice261.000$548kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cody Reed250.167$548kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Amir Garrett260.099$548kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jesse Winker240.080$545kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Phillip Ervin250.057$545kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Mahle230.036$545kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jackson Stephens240.034$545kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevin Shackelford291.000$545kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sal Romano240.081$545kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zack Weiss260.000$545kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alex Blandino250.000$513kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adam Duvall292.096$491kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Curt Casali292.169$357kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Dixon260.000$337kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dilson Herrera240.119$255kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mason Williams261.080$196kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Robert Stephenson250.167$158kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Keury Mella240.020$129kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dylan Floro270.056$117kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Crockett261.160$105kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Blake Trahan240.030$88kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jesús Reyes250.027$76kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tanner Rainey250.000$62kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Wisler251.161$56kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rosell Herrera250.000$40kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Lucas Sims240.062$29kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Aristides Aquino240.000$23kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gabriel Guerrero24–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Reds 2018; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.