CIN⇄CHW⇄LAD

CINCIN Walt Jocketty net +$16.0M net +1.9

received +$18.4M+$18.4M ± $31M expected surplus · +$27.2M realized received 5.8 ± 4 expected · 6.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CIN's 2016 odds 0% → 0% (-0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Scott ScheblerOF·25y·L/R

+$12.5M+$12.5M± $18M exp surplusrealized +$15.2M 2.6± 2 exp WARrealized 2.6

Prior

#802 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.9/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.46/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

José Peraza2B/SS·22y·R/R

+$4.3M+$4.3M± $18M exp surplusrealized +$13.6M 2.0± 2 exp WARrealized 3.9

Prior

Composite #66.0 pedigree (Baseball America #66 (2016)) → 0.46/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.9/yr over 0.0 season

Talent

0.37/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Brandon Dixon1B/OF·24y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $18M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

#92 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

CHWCHW Kenny Williams net −$5.6M net +1.5

received +$36.8M+$36.8M ± $27M expected surplus · +$11.2M realized received 5.3 ± 3 expected · 4.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHW's 2016 odds 7% → 12% (+4.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Todd Frazier3B·30y·R/R

+$36.8M+$36.8M± $27M exp surplusrealized +$11.2M 5.3± 3 exp WARrealized 4.3

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.22/yr

Evidence

recent form 4.0/yr over 2.4 seasons

Talent

2.70/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs × 0.98 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

LADLAD Andrew Friedman net −$10.4M net -3.4

received +$38.4M+$38.4M ± $51M expected surplus · +$16.8M realized received 7.8 ± 6 expected · 2.8 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved LAD's 2016 odds 65% → 57% (-7.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Trayce ThompsonOF·25y·R/R

+$33.1M+$33.1M± $39M exp surplusrealized +$17.6M 6.1± 5 exp WARrealized 2.9

Prior

#61 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 4.8/yr over 0.3 season

Talent

1.12/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Frankie MontasP·23y·R/R

+$8.6M+$8.6M± $18M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.6± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.8/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

0.30/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Micah Johnson2B·25y·L/R

−$3.2M−$3.2M± $28M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 0.1± 4 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

#291 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.9/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

0.03/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.