RRosternomics
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Reds CIN

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President of baseball ops: Dick Williams · GM: Nick Krall

Overview

WINDOW ↗ rising
cheap & winning · year 1 in this regime · payroll 0.99× league · TAB +1.2
+1.2TAB — talent above budget13th/30
+1.1WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)15th/30
9.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars6th/30
-5.3dead WAR — sub-replacement drag15th/30
39%dead money %19th/30
0.512win %14th/30
35.3roster fWAR16th/30
-11surplus $M (value vs cost)15th/30
$126Mpayroll $M15th/30

Roster

CFTyler Naquin 92GShogo Akiyama 48GNick Senzel 29G
LFJesse Winker 101GAristides Aquino 35GMax Schrock 23G
RFNick Castellanos 135GAristides Aquino 27GTyler Naquin 21G
SSKyle Farmer 121GEugenio Suárez 34GMike Freeman 12G
2BJonathan India 148GKyle Farmer 9GNick Senzel 8G
3BEugenio Suárez 104GAsdrúbal Cabrera 65GMike Moustakas 44G
1BJoey Votto 123GTyler Stephenson 23GAsdrúbal Cabrera 19G
STARTERSLuis Castillo 4.0WARTyler Mahle 3.5WARWade Miley 3.4WARSonny Gray 2.4WARVladimir Gutierrez 0.6WAR
CTucker Barnhart 102GTyler Stephenson 78G
DHJesse Winker 5GJoey Votto 3GNick Castellanos 1G
BULLPEN★ Mychal Givens 8svMichael Lorenzen 11hBrad Brach 10hLucas Sims 9hAmir Garrett 7hLuis Cessa 4hJustin Wilson 4hRyan Hendrix 3h
CTucker Barnhart 102 · Tyler Stephenson 78
1BJoey Votto 123 · Tyler Stephenson 23 · Asdrúbal Cabrera 19
2BJonathan India 148 · Kyle Farmer 9 · Nick Senzel 8
3BEugenio Suárez 104 · Asdrúbal Cabrera 65 · Mike Moustakas 44
SSKyle Farmer 121 · Eugenio Suárez 34 · Mike Freeman 12
LFJesse Winker 101 · Aristides Aquino 35 · Max Schrock 23
CFTyler Naquin 92 · Shogo Akiyama 48 · Nick Senzel 29
RFNick Castellanos 135 · Aristides Aquino 27 · Tyler Naquin 21
DHJesse Winker 5 · Joey Votto 3 · Nick Castellanos 1
SPLuis Castillo 4.0 · Tyler Mahle 3.5 · Wade Miley 3.4 · Sonny Gray 2.4 · Vladimir Gutierrez 0.6
BP★ Mychal Givens 8 · Michael Lorenzen 11 · Brad Brach 10 · Lucas Sims 9 · Amir Garrett 7 · Luis Cessa 4 · Justin Wilson 4 · Ryan Hendrix 3

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2021 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Luis Castillo 28 arb 334.0 4.2 +8.7
Nick Castellanos 29 FA-elig 1383.7 14.0 -2.0
Joey Votto 37 FA-elig 1293.5 25.0 -13.5
Tyler Mahle 26 arb 333.5 2.2 +9.2
Jonathan India 24 – 1503.4 0.6 +10.5
Wade Miley 34 FA-elig 303.4 8.0 +3.0
Jesse Winker 27 arb 1103.2 3.1 +7.4
Sonny Gray 31 FA-elig 262.4 10.2 -2.2
Kyle Farmer 30 arb 1472.1 0.6 +6.2
Tyler Stephenson 24 pre-arb 1321.8 0.6 +5.2
Tucker Barnhart 30 FA-elig 1161.5 4.2 +0.8
Tyler Naquin 30 arb 1271.4 1.5 +3.2
Lucas Sims 27 pre-arb 471.3 0.6 +3.6
Tejay Antone 27 pre-arb 230.8 0.6 +2.1
Vladimir Gutierrez 25 – 220.6 0.4 +1.5
Art Warren 28 pre-arb 260.6 0.4 +1.4
Luis Cessa↔ NYY 29 arb 240.5 0.5 +1.3
Reiver Sanmartin 25 – 20.4 0.0 +1.4
Sean Doolittle↔ SEA 34 FA-elig 450.3 1.2 -0.3
Tony Santillan 24 – 270.2 0.3 +0.5
Michael Lorenzen 29 FA-elig 270.2 4.4 -3.7
Delino DeShields 28 arb 250.2 0.1 +0.6
Heath Hembree↔ NYM 32 FA-elig 450.2 0.9 -0.3
Max Schrock 26 pre-arb 530.2 0.2 +0.4
Jeff Hoffman 28 pre-arb 320.2 0.6 +0.0
José De León 28 – 90.2 0.1 +0.5
Justin Wilson↔ NYY 33 FA-elig 210.2 1.4 -0.8
TJ Friedl 25 – 140.1 0.0 +0.4
Mychal Givens↔ COL 31 FA-elig 230.1 1.7 -1.3
José Barrero 23 pre-arb 210.1 0.1 +0.2
Carson Fulmer 27 pre-arb 200.0 0.2 -0.1
Dauri Moreta 25 – 4-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Eugenio Suárez 29 FA-elig 145-0.0 10.8 -10.8
Amir Garrett 29 arb 63-0.0 1.5 -1.6
Michael Feliz↔ BOS 28 FA-elig 9-0.1 0.4 -0.7
Brad Brach 35 – 35-0.1 0.4 -0.6
Ashton Goudeau↔ COL 28 – 5-0.1 0.0 -0.4
Edgar García↔ MIN 24 – 5-0.1 0.0 -0.4
R.J. Alaniz 30 pre-arb 3-0.1 0.1 -0.5
Nick Senzel 26 pre-arb 36-0.1 0.6 -1.0
Cam Bedrosian↔ OAK 29 FA-elig 6-0.1 0.3 -0.8
Scott Heineman 28 – 19-0.2 0.1 -0.6
Sal Romano↔ MIL 27 – 14-0.2 0.1 -0.7
Aristides Aquino 27 pre-arb 84-0.2 0.6 -1.2
Riley O'Brien 26 – 1-0.2 0.0 -0.8
Alex Blandino 28 pre-arb 43-0.2 0.4 -1.2
Alejo Lopez 25 – 14-0.2 0.1 -0.9
Mike Freeman 33 pre-arb 37-0.3 0.2 -1.1
Cionel Pérez 25 pre-arb 25-0.3 0.2 -1.2
Mark Payton 29 – 24-0.3 0.1 -1.2
Josh Osich 32 FA-elig 17-0.4 0.1 -1.2
Mike Moustakas 32 FA-elig 62-0.4 14.0 -15.3
Ryan Hendrix 26 – 36-0.4 0.3 -1.6
Asdrúbal Cabrera↔ ARI 35 FA-elig 20-0.4 0.3 -1.7
Shogo Akiyama 33 pre-arb 88-0.7 7.0 -9.2

Key additions (new vs 2020)

PlayerfWAR
Jonathan India3.4
Tyler Naquin1.4
Vladimir Gutierrez0.6
Art Warren0.6
Luis Cessa0.5
Reiver Sanmartin0.4

Key subtractions (gone from 2020)

Player2020 fWAR
Trevor Bauer2.6
Raisel Iglesias1.1
Curt Casali0.7
Tyler Thornburg0.2
Archie Bradley0.1
Freddy Galvis0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

2021 payroll
$125.7M
2022 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2021, 2021–2027. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2021; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (13)

PlayerAgeSvc2021202220232024202520262027
Joey Votto3713.027$25.0MFREE AGENT
Mike Moustakas329.111$14.0MFREE AGENT
Nick Castellanos297.029$14.0MFREE AGENT
Eugenio Suárez296.061$10.8MFREE AGENT
Sonny Gray317.061$10.2MFREE AGENT
Wade Miley349.025$8.0MFREE AGENT
Tucker Barnhart306.075$4.2MFREE AGENT
Justin Wilson338.035$1.4MFREE AGENT
Sean Doolittle348.122$1.2MFREE AGENT
Michael Feliz286.000$429kFREE AGENT
Brad Brach358.063$353kFREE AGENT
Asdrúbal Cabrera3513.027$318kFREE AGENT
Josh Osich326.000$100kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (12)

PlayerAgeSvc2021202220232024202520262027
Michael Lorenzen295.159$4.4MFREE AGENT
Luis Castillo283.101$4.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jesse Winker273.080$3.1MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Mahle263.018$2.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mychal Givens315.069$1.7MFREE AGENT
Tyler Naquin304.032$1.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Amir Garrett293.099$1.5MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Heath Hembree325.106$938kFREE AGENT
Luis Cessa293.131$475kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cam Bedrosian295.153$346kFREE AGENT
José De León285.000$108kFREE AGENT
Delino DeShields285.109$98kFREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (30)

PlayerAgeSvc2021202220232024202520262027
Shogo Akiyama331.000$7.0MPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Farmer302.129$640kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Lucas Sims272.014$598kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Hoffman282.105$586kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tejay Antone271.000$580kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Senzel261.150$580kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Aristides Aquino271.005$579kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jonathan India240.000$570kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Stephenson240.056$570kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alex Blandino281.108$410kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Vladimir Gutierrez250.000$386kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Art Warren280.023$368kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Hendrix261.125$301kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tony Santillan240.000$267kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cionel Pérez251.010$234kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Max Schrock260.075$233kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Freeman332.111$205kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carson Fulmer272.035$164kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mark Payton290.031$120kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Heineman281.146$115kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
José Barrero230.092$107kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alejo Lopez250.000$104kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sal Romano272.125$102kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
R.J. Alaniz300.065$95kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ashton Goudeau280.092$50kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
TJ Friedl250.000$46kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dauri Moreta250.000$34kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Edgar García240.145$25kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Reiver Sanmartin250.000$18kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Riley O'Brien260.000$6kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Reds 2021; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.