CIN⇄WSN

CINCIN Dick Williams net +$26.4M net +1.9

received +$16.0M+$16.0M ± $11M expected surplus · +$22.4M realized received 1.7 ± 1 expected · 2.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CIN's 2019 odds 7% → 11% (+3.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Tanner RoarkP·32y·R/R

+$16.1M+$16.1M± $11M exp surplusrealized +$22.4M 1.7± 1 exp WARrealized 2.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.4/yr over 2.6 seasons

Talent

1.71/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

WSNWSN Michael Rizzo net −$26.4M net -1.9

received −$4.8M−$4.8M ± $24M expected surplus · −$4.0M realized received 0.0 ± 3 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved WSN's 2019 odds 92% → 88% (-3.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Tanner RaineyP·26y·R/R

−$4.5M−$4.5M± $24M exp surplusrealized −$4.0M 0.0± 3 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

#71 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.9/yr over 0.3 season

Talent

-0.18/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.