CIN⇄NYM

CINCIN Dick Williams net +$18.4M net +1.4

received +$7.2M+$7.2M ± $10M expected surplus · +$6.4M realized received 1.3 ± 1 expected · 1.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CIN's 2018 odds 2% → 3% (+0.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Matt HarveyP·29y·R/R

+$7.4M+$7.4M± $10M exp surplusrealized +$6.4M 1.3± 1 exp WARrealized 1.4

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.58/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.9/yr over 1.6 season

Talent

1.33/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

NYMNYM Sandy Alderson net −$18.4M net -1.4

received −$11.2M−$11.2M ± $7M expected surplus · −$12.0M realized received 0.3 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYM's 2018 odds 20% → 15% (-4.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Devin MesoracoC·30y·R/R

−$10.9M−$10.9M± $7M exp surplusrealized −$12.0M 0.3± 1 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.30/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.4/yr over 1.0 season

Talent

0.35/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.