OAK⇄CIN

OAKOAK Billy Beane net +$2.4M net +0.4

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $0M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved OAK's 2020 odds 51% → 53% (+1.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

cash / PTBNL

+$0.0M+$0.0M± $0M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 0.0

Cash or player to be named — no projection

why ▾hide ▴

CINCIN Dick Williams net −$2.4M net -0.4

received −$0.8M−$0.8M ± $18M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 0.7 ± 2 expected · -0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CIN's 2020 odds 33% → 31% (-1.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mark PaytonOF·28y·L/L

−$0.8M−$0.8M± $18M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 0.7± 2 exp WARrealized -0.4

Prior

#212 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.64 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.