TEX⇄CIN

TEXTEX Jon Daniels net +$0.0M net +0.0

received +$3.2M+$3.2M ± $8M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.4 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Tony SanchezC·30y·R/R

+$3.1M+$3.1M± $8M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.4± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#4 overall draft pick → 0.70/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.1/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.73/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs × 0.93 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

CINCIN Dick Williams net +$0.0M net +0.0

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $0M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

cash / PTBNL

+$0.0M+$0.0M± $0M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 0.0

Cash or player to be named — no projection

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.