RRosternomics
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Reds CIN

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GM: Dick Williams

Overview

REBUILD ↘ cooling
cheap & losing · year 3 in this regime · payroll 0.7× league · TAB -17.1
-17.1TAB — talent above budget30th/30
-9.4WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)29th/30
4.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars24th/30
-12.0dead WAR — sub-replacement drag30th/30
35%dead money %16th/30
0.420win %27th/30
12.8roster fWAR30th/30
-47surplus $M (value vs cost)24th/30
$88Mpayroll $M21st/30

Roster

CFBilly Hamilton 115GTyler Holt 32GScott Schebler 18G
LFAdam Duvall 137GTyler Holt 19GScott Schebler 13G
RFScott Schebler 41GTyler Holt 23GSteve Selsky 11G
SSZack Cozart 111GJosé Peraza 31GIván De Jesús Jr. 30G
2BBrandon Phillips 138GIván De Jesús Jr. 22GJosé Peraza 12G
3BEugenio Suárez 151GIván De Jesús Jr. 14GJordan Pacheco 4G
1BJoey Votto 154GIván De Jesús Jr. 12GAdam Duvall 5G
STARTERSAnthony DeSclafani 2.0WARRaisel Iglesias 1.4WARDan Straily 0.6WARBrandon Finnegan 0.6WARHomer Bailey 0.6WAR
CTucker Barnhart 108GRamón Cabrera 48GDevin Mesoraco 13G
DHBrandon Phillips 3GJordan Pacheco 1GZack Cozart 1G
BULLPEN★ Tony Cingrani 17svBlake Wood 15hMichael Lorenzen 10hJumbo Diaz 4hRoss Ohlendorf 3hCaleb Cotham 3hJosh A. Smith 1hJ.J. Hoover 1h
CTucker Barnhart 108 · Ramón Cabrera 48 · Devin Mesoraco 13
1BJoey Votto 154 · Iván De Jesús Jr. 12 · Adam Duvall 5
2BBrandon Phillips 138 · Iván De Jesús Jr. 22 · José Peraza 12
3BEugenio Suárez 151 · Iván De Jesús Jr. 14 · Jordan Pacheco 4
SSZack Cozart 111 · José Peraza 31 · Iván De Jesús Jr. 30
LFAdam Duvall 137 · Tyler Holt 19 · Scott Schebler 13
CFBilly Hamilton 115 · Tyler Holt 32 · Scott Schebler 18
RFScott Schebler 41 · Tyler Holt 23 · Steve Selsky 11
DHBrandon Phillips 3 · Jordan Pacheco 1 · Zack Cozart 1
SPAnthony DeSclafani 2.0 · Raisel Iglesias 1.4 · Dan Straily 0.6 · Brandon Finnegan 0.6 · Homer Bailey 0.6
BP★ Tony Cingrani 17 · Blake Wood 15 · Michael Lorenzen 10 · Jumbo Diaz 4 · Ross Ohlendorf 3 · Caleb Cotham 3 · Josh A. Smith 1 · J.J. Hoover 1

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2016 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Joey Votto 32 FA-elig 1585.0 20.0 -3.9
Billy Hamilton 25 arb 1193.8 0.6 +11.7
Adam Duvall 27 pre-arb 1502.2 0.5 +6.6
Eugenio Suárez 24 pre-arb 1592.1 0.5 +6.2
Anthony DeSclafani 26 pre-arb 202.0 0.5 +5.9
Jay Bruce↔ NYM 29 FA-elig 971.5 8.2 -3.3
Raisel Iglesias 26 pre-arb 371.4 3.2 +1.4
José Peraza 22 pre-arb 721.2 0.5 +3.3
Zack Cozart 30 arb 1210.7 2.9 -0.6
Scott Schebler 25 pre-arb 820.6 0.5 +1.6
Brandon Finnegan 23 pre-arb 330.6 0.5 +1.5
Michael Lorenzen 24 pre-arb 360.6 0.5 +1.4
Dan Straily 27 arb 340.6 0.5 +1.4
Homer Bailey 30 FA-elig 60.6 18.0 -16.1
Tucker Barnhart 25 pre-arb 1150.5 0.5 +1.2
Blake Wood 30 FA-elig 700.4 0.6 +0.8
Steve Selsky 26 pre-arb 240.2 0.1 +0.6
John Lamb 25 pre-arb 140.2 0.5 +0.1
Tim Adleman 28 – 130.2 0.4 +0.2
Hernan Iribarren 32 – 240.2 0.1 +0.5
Tony Cingrani 26 arb 650.2 0.5 -0.0
Daniel Wright↔ ANA 25 – 4-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Caleb Cotham 28 pre-arb 23-0.1 0.5 -0.7
Abel De Los Santos 23 – 5-0.1 0.1 -0.3
Matt Magill 26 pre-arb 5-0.1 0.1 -0.5
Steve Delabar 32 – 7-0.1 0.0 -0.5
Wandy Peralta 24 – 10-0.1 0.1 -0.6
Raffy Lopez 28 pre-arb 8-0.2 0.1 -0.6
Kyle Waldrop 24 pre-arb 15-0.2 0.1 -0.6
A.J. Morris 29 – 7-0.2 0.1 -0.6
Brandon Phillips 35 FA-elig 141-0.2 13.0 -13.6
JC Ramírez↔ ANA 27 – 27-0.2 0.1 -0.7
Layne Somsen 27 – 2-0.2 0.0 -0.7
Patrick Kivlehan↔ SDP 26 – 3-0.2 0.0 -0.7
Jumbo Diaz 32 pre-arb 45-0.2 0.5 -1.3
Josh A. Smith 28 – 33-0.3 0.5 -1.4
Dayan Díaz 27 pre-arb 6-0.3 0.0 -0.9
Drew Hayes 28 – 6-0.3 0.1 -1.1
Tyler Holt 27 pre-arb 106-0.3 0.5 -1.6
Tony Renda 25 – 32-0.3 0.1 -1.2
Keyvius Sampson 25 pre-arb 18-0.3 0.5 -1.6
Iván De Jesús Jr. 29 arb 104-0.4 0.5 -1.8
Cody Reed 23 – 10-0.4 0.2 -1.7
Robert Stephenson 23 – 8-0.4 0.1 -1.5
Tim Melville 26 – 3-0.5 0.0 -1.6
Devin Mesoraco 28 arb 16-0.5 5.0 -6.7
Ross Ohlendorf 33 FA-elig 64-0.5 0.8 -2.6
Jordan Pacheco 30 – 31-0.7 0.8 -3.0
Jon Moscot 24 pre-arb 5-0.9 0.5 -3.3
J.J. Hoover 28 arb 18-0.9 1.4 -4.4
Alfredo Simon 35 FA-elig 15-1.0 2.0 -5.4
Ramón Cabrera 26 pre-arb 61-1.8 0.4 -6.2

Key additions (new vs 2015)

PlayerfWAR
José Peraza1.2
Scott Schebler0.6
Dan Straily0.6
Blake Wood0.4
Steve Selsky0.2
Tim Adleman0.2

Key subtractions (gone from 2015)

Player2015 fWAR
Todd Frazier4.3
Johnny Cueto3.1
Aroldis Chapman2.5
Mike Leake1.7
Marlon Byrd0.9
Manny Parra0.4

Current & Historical Payroll

2016 payroll
$88.2M
2017 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2016, 2016–2022. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2016; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (7)

PlayerAgeSvc2016201720182019202020212022
Joey Votto328.027$20.0MFREE AGENT
Homer Bailey307.017$18.0MFREE AGENT
Brandon Phillips3511.022$13.0MFREE AGENT
Jay Bruce297.125$8.2MFREE AGENT
Alfredo Simon356.142$2.0MFREE AGENT
Ross Ohlendorf336.108$800kFREE AGENT
Hernan Iribarren328.000$80kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (7)

PlayerAgeSvc2016201720182019202020212022
Devin Mesoraco284.028$5.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Zack Cozart304.084$2.9MARB 3FREE AGENT
J.J. Hoover283.102$1.4MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jordan Pacheco304.073$800kARB 3FREE AGENT
Blake Wood303.131$600kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Iván De Jesús Jr.295.000$517kFREE AGENT
Steve Delabar323.097$42kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (38)

PlayerAgeSvc2016201720182019202020212022
Raisel Iglesias260.154$3.2MPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Billy Hamilton252.028$570kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eugenio Suárez241.061$545kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Anthony DeSclafani261.062$540kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tony Cingrani262.088$530kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jumbo Diaz321.073$525kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tucker Barnhart251.075$518kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Lorenzen240.159$516kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dan Straily271.126$512kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Finnegan230.107$511kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adam Duvall270.096$510kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Caleb Cotham280.042$510kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jon Moscot240.122$508kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Keyvius Sampson250.067$507kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
John Lamb250.054$507kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Holt270.075$507kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh A. Smith28–$507k
José Peraza220.042$507kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Schebler250.035$507kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ramón Cabrera260.034$428kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tim Adleman280.000$391kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cody Reed230.000$247kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tony Renda25–$144k
Steve Selsky260.043$114kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Waldrop240.005$108kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
JC Ramírez270.147$106kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Raffy Lopez281.026$105kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Robert Stephenson230.000$100kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Wandy Peralta240.000$86kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
A.J. Morris29–$72k
Drew Hayes28–$69k
Abel De Los Santos23–$58k
Matt Magill260.026$58kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dayan Díaz270.054$42kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Layne Somsen27–$36k
Daniel Wright250.050$36kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tim Melville260.000$31kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Patrick Kivlehan260.000$7kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Reds 2016; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.