RRosternomics
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Dan O'Brien

Mar 26, 1929 (Elizabeth, NJ) – Jan 16, 2017 · died at 87

General manager for the Rangers, Mariners, Angels, and Reds (1974–2008).

7 seasons with salary-era data across 4 stints. All figures are franchise-level outcomes during the tenure, not solely attributable to one executive.

Overview

Titles0
Pennants0
Playoffs0
Record518–616
Win %0.457
-4.2GM WAR — wins above a replacement GM (org-adjusted, shrunk; per season) ±5.2166th/195 execs
6.1Depth — 2+ WAR regulars per season (the breadth that drives TAB, not stars)100th/195 execs
-6.7Dead WAR — WAR/yr bled by sub-replacement players (closer to 0 = better)168th/195 execs
48%Dead money — payroll on <0.5-WAR players (lower = better)175th/195 execs
$15MCheap-talent surplus — $/yr of value from cost-controlled (pre-arb/arb) players above their pay; the selection engine, and the stickiest GM skill we track98th/195 execs
$4MDrafted surplus — cheap-talent surplus from his own draftees (the develop-from-the-draft engine)118th/195 execs
$12MTraded-for surplus — cheap-talent surplus from cost-controlled players he acquired via trade39th/195 execs
$-0MInt'l surplus — cheap-talent surplus from his own international signees174th/195 execs
-42.9TAB — talent above budget — roster-construction alpha (talent your budget bought above expectation), tenure total178th/195 execs
-36.1WAB — realized wins (TAB + the non-repeatable luck of converting talent to wins)170th/195 execs
0.58Acquisition Leverage — playoff pts per acquired WAR, graded once in the year each deal's wins arrive (the repeatable decision skill)143rd/195 execs
-48Roster surplus $M107th/195 execs

Tenure breakdown

TeamRoleYearsSzns WAB WAB/yr TAB WAR surp HG Trade FA R5 AcqLev W-L% POPenWS Surp $M
▸ Reds GM 2004–2008 5 -17.4 -3.48 -15.7 -10.9 +91.4 +36.1 +15.2 +1.6 0.73 0.463 ––– -23
▸ Angels GM 1992–1993 2 -18.7 -9.35 -27.2 -31.1 +6.6 -1.2 -4.7 +0.0 0.09 0.441 ––– -25
▸ Mariners GM 1981–1983 0 +0.0 – +0.0 +0.0 +127.9 -0.3 -14.0 -1.4 – – ––– –
▸ Rangers GM 1974–1979 0 +0.0 – +0.0 +0.0 +12.5 -15.1 +0.0 +0.0 – – ––– –
Career total (1985+ data) 7 -36.1 -42.9 -42.0 +238.4 +19.4 -3.4 +0.2 0.58 0.457 –– – -48

Roster Construction

How the roster was sourced

by valueby volume

Share of acquired fWAR by channel vs. league average.

Build channels — net fWAR

Acquired minus surrendered / signed minus walked.

Home-grown (draft/intl)+238.4
Trade+19.4
Free agency-3.4
Rule 5 / minor draft+0.2
Sourcing mix: 75% draft · 8% FA · 17% trade · 0% R5

Roster value distribution — career average — depth vs. stars

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR, averaged across Dan O'Brien's seasons. Bars = his rosters; the black line = the league-average player at each slot. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge.

Players acquired — 189 players, by realized fWAR for the franchise (scroll for more)

PlayerPosTeam How Year Szns fWAR WAR/yr Lev
Edgar Martínez 3B/DH SEA Intl FA 1982 16 +65.5 +4.1 –
Brandon Phillips 2B CIN Trade 2006 10 +30.1 +3.0 1.5
Mike Moore P SEA Draft 1981 4 +17.3 +4.3 –
Jay Bruce OF CIN Draft 2005 8 +16.9 +2.1 –
Alvin Davis 1B/DH SEA Draft 1982 6 +15.9 +2.6 –
Johnny Cueto P CIN Intl FA 2004 8 +15.8 +2.0 –
Todd Frazier 3B CIN Draft 2007 5 +15.0 +3.0 –
Homer Bailey P CIN Draft 2004 9 +13.9 +1.5 –
Mark Langston P SEA Draft 1981 4 +13.8 +3.4 –
Pete O'Brien 1B TEX Draft 1979 4 +13.3 +3.3 –
Bronson Arroyo P CIN Trade 2006 7 +13.3 +1.9 4.1
Zack Cozart SS CIN Draft 2007 7 +11.7 +1.7 –
Phil Bradley OF SEA Draft 1981 3 +11.0 +3.7 –
Drew Stubbs OF CIN Draft 2006 4 +8.3 +2.1 –
Bengie Molina C ANA Intl FA 1993 7 +7.5 +1.1 –
Felipe López 2B/SS CIN Trade 2004 3 +5.4 +1.8 0.1
David Ross C CIN Trade 2006 3 +5.4 +1.8 2.7
Ken Phelps DH SEA Trade 1983 4 +5.3 +1.3 –
Chris Heisey OF CIN Draft 2006 5 +5.1 +1.0 –
Rich Aurilia SS CIN Free agency 2005 2 +5.0 +2.5 1.0
Edinson Vólquez P CIN Trade 2008 3 +3.5 +1.2 0.4
Kyle Lohse P CIN Trade 2006 2 +3.4 +1.7 1.5
Scott Hatteberg C/1B CIN Free agency 2006 2 +3.3 +1.6 2.2
Javier Valentín C CIN Free agency 2004 3 +3.3 +1.1 1.1
Travis Wood P CIN Draft 2005 2 +3.3 +1.6 –
Julio Valera P ANA Trade 1992 2 +3.2 +1.6 0.2
Rene Gonzales 2B/3B ANA Free agency 1992 3 +2.8 +0.9 0.2
Jerry Hairston 2B/OF CIN Free agency 2008 2 +2.7 +1.3 0.3
Brandon Claussen P CIN Trade 2004 3 +2.7 +0.9 0.1
Laynce Nix OF CIN Free agency 2008 2 +2.6 +1.3 0.3
Nick Masset P CIN Trade 2008 3 +2.5 +0.8 0.3
Eric Milton P CIN Free agency 2004 3 +2.5 +0.8 0.4
Francisco Cordero P CIN Free agency 2007 4 +2.4 +0.6 0.1
Mike James P ANA Trade 1993 4 +2.3 +0.6 –
Josh Hamilton OF CIN Trade 2006 1 +2.3 +2.3 –
Álex González SS CIN Free agency 2006 1 +2.2 +2.2 2.7
Norris Hopper OF CIN Trade 2006 2 +2.1 +1.0 –
Sam LeCure P CIN Draft 2005 4 +2.1 +0.5 –
Bob Kearney C SEA Trade 1983 3 +2.1 +0.7 –
Jack Perconte 2B SEA Trade 1983 1 +2.1 +2.1 –
Devin Mesoraco C CIN Draft 2007 2 +1.9 +0.9 –
Bill Wilkinson P SEA Draft 1983 2 +1.9 +1.0 –
Lee Guetterman P SEA Draft 1981 3 +1.8 +0.6 –
Arthur Rhodes P CIN Free agency 2008 2 +1.7 +0.8 0.2
Spike Owen SS SEA Draft 1982 2 +1.7 +0.8 –
Paul Bako C CIN Free agency 2008 1 +1.6 +1.6 –
David Weathers P CIN Free agency 2004 4 +1.6 +0.4 0.5
Joe Randa 3B CIN Trade 2005 1 +1.6 +1.6 0.8
Cory Lidle P CIN Trade 2004 1 +1.5 +1.5 0.2
Bert Blyleven P ANA Free agency 1992 3 +1.4 +0.5 17.1
Wayne Tolleson 2B/SS TEX Draft 1978 1 +1.3 +1.3 –
Gorman Thomas OF SEA Trade 1983 1 +1.2 +1.2 –
Dave Schmidt P TEX Draft 1979 1 +1.2 +1.2 –
Brian Anderson P ANA Draft 1993 2 +1.1 +0.6 –
Bobby Livingston P CIN Trade 2007 1 +1.1 +1.1 1.4
Stan Javier OF ANA Free agency 1993 1 +1.0 +1.0 0.1
Jared Burton P CIN Rule 5 2006 4 +1.0 +0.2 –
Jeff Keppinger 2B CIN Trade 2007 1 +1.0 +1.0 2.5
Greg Myers C ANA Trade 1992 2 +0.9 +0.5 0.1
Mickey Brantley OF SEA Draft 1983 2 +0.9 +0.4 –
Elizardo Ramírez P CIN Trade 2006 1 +0.9 +0.9 1.7
Bill Bray P CIN Trade 2006 5 +0.8 +0.2 0.4
Juan Francisco 1B/3B CIN Intl FA 2004 3 +0.8 +0.3 –
Roy Thomas P SEA Trade 1981 2 +0.8 +0.4 –
Darren Bragg OF CIN Trade 2004 1 +0.8 +0.8 0.1
Todd Jones P CIN Trade 2004 1 +0.8 +0.8 0.1
Micah Owings P CIN Trade 2008 3 +0.8 +0.3 0.0
Jason Ellison OF CIN Trade 2007 1 +0.7 +0.7 0.9
Paul Janish SS CIN Draft 2004 2 +0.6 +0.3 –
Torey Lovullo 2B ANA Free agency 1992 1 +0.5 +0.5 0.1
Scott Sanderson P ANA Free agency 1993 2 +0.5 +0.3 0.2
Chris Valaika 2B CIN Draft 2006 2 +0.5 +0.2 –
Jeremy Affeldt P CIN Free agency 2008 1 +0.4 +0.4 0.1
Danny Herrera P CIN Trade 2007 2 +0.4 +0.2 –
Mike Stanton P CIN Free agency 2006 1 +0.4 +0.4 0.5
Gene Nelson P ANA Trade 1993 1 +0.4 +0.4 0.0
Don Robinson P ANA Trade 1992 1 +0.4 +0.4 0.0
Ryan Hancock P ANA Draft 1993 1 +0.3 +0.3 –
Yonder Alonso 1B CIN Draft 2008 1 +0.3 +0.3 –
Daniel Corcino P CIN Intl FA 2008 1 +0.3 +0.3 –
Marcus McBeth P CIN Trade 2007 1 +0.3 +0.3 –
Dave Sappelt OF CIN Draft 2008 1 +0.3 +0.3 –
Kurt Stillwell SS ANA Trade 1993 1 +0.3 +0.3 0.0
Kelly Gruber 3B ANA Trade 1992 1 +0.2 +0.2 0.0
Randy Keisler P CIN Free agency 2004 1 +0.2 +0.2 0.1
Terry Taylor P SEA Draft 1982 1 +0.2 +0.2 –
Anthony Chavez P ANA Draft 1992 1 +0.1 +0.1 –
Mike Fitzgerald C ANA Free agency 1992 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.0
Jerry Nielsen P ANA Trade 1992 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.0
Matt Perisho P ANA Draft 1993 1 +0.1 +0.1 –
Ty Van Burkleo 1B ANA Trade 1993 1 +0.1 +0.1 –
Jon Coutlangus P CIN Trade 2006 1 +0.1 +0.1 –
Didi Gregorius SS CIN Intl FA 2007 1 +0.1 +0.1 –
Eddie Guardado P CIN Free agency 2007 2 +0.1 +0.0 0.4
Josh Hancock P CIN Trade 2004 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.1
Ryan Jorgensen C CIN Free agency 2006 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.1
Robert Manuel P CIN Trade 2006 1 +0.1 +0.1 –
Denis Phipps OF CIN Intl FA 2004 1 +0.1 +0.1 –
Ramón Ramírez P CIN Trade 2008 1 +0.1 +0.1 –
Josh Roenicke P CIN Draft 2006 2 +0.1 +0.0 –
Willy Taveras OF CIN Free agency 2008 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.0
Nick Capra OF TEX Draft 1979 1 +0.1 +0.1 –
Junior Félix OF ANA Trade 1992 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.0
Tony Womack 2B/SS CIN Trade 2006 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.1
Scott Schoeneweis P CIN Trade 2006 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.1
Joe Mays P CIN Trade 2006 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.2
Anderson Machado SS CIN Trade 2004 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.0
Justin Germano P CIN Trade 2006 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.1
George Arias 3B ANA Draft 1993 – -0.0 – –
Jamie Burke C ANA Draft 1993 – -0.0 – –
Mike Butcher P ANA Trade 1992 2 +0.0 +0.0 –
Jim Walewander 2B ANA Free agency 1993 – -0.0 – –
Jerome Walton OF ANA Free agency 1993 – -0.0 – –
Andy Abad 1B CIN Free agency 2005 – -0.0 – –
Jolbert Cabrera OF CIN Free agency 2007 – -0.0 – –
Wilkin Castillo OF CIN Trade 2008 1 +0.0 +0.0 –
Buck Coats OF CIN Trade 2007 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.1
Carlos Fisher P CIN Draft 2005 2 +0.0 +0.0 –
Jerry Gil SS CIN Free agency 2007 – +0.0 – –
Jeremy Horst P CIN Draft 2007 1 +0.0 +0.0 –
Jason Romano OF CIN Free agency 2004 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0
Jason Standridge P CIN Free agency 2005 – -0.0 – –
Ben Weber P CIN Free agency 2004 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0
Al Cowens OF SEA Trade 1982 1 -0.0 -0.0 –
Dave Geisel P SEA Rule 5 1983 – -0.0 – –
Tony Fossas P TEX Draft 1979 2 +0.0 +0.0 –
Jeff Conine 1B/OF CIN Trade 2007 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0
Jason Johnson P CIN Trade 2006 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.1
Brandon Watson OF CIN Trade 2006 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0
Alvin Davis 1B/DH ANA Free agency 1992 – -0.1 – –
Keith Luuloa 2B/SS ANA Draft 1993 – -0.1 – –
Jon Adkins P CIN Free agency 2007 – -0.1 – –
Kevin Barker 1B CIN Free agency 2008 – -0.1 – –
Mark Bellhorn 2B/3B CIN Free agency 2007 – -0.1 – –
Jung Bong P CIN Trade 2004 – -0.1 – –
Enrique Cruz 2B/SS CIN Free agency 2006 – -0.1 – –
Justin Freeman P CIN Draft 2008 – -0.1 – –
Ramón Hernández C CIN Trade 2008 2 -0.1 -0.0 13.5
Darnell McDonald OF CIN Free agency 2008 – -0.1 – –
Chris Michalak P CIN Free agency 2006 – -0.1 – –
Aaron Myette P CIN Free agency 2004 – -0.1 – –
Craig Tatum C CIN Draft 2004 – -0.1 – –
Pedro Viola P CIN Intl FA 2005 – -0.1 – –
Steve Frey P ANA Trade 1993 1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0
Gary Majewski P CIN Trade 2006 2 -0.1 -0.1 0.1
Ken Patterson P ANA Free agency 1993 1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0
Jeff Schmidt P ANA Draft 1992 – -0.2 – –
Rheal Cormier P CIN Trade 2006 – -0.2 – –
Luis López 2B/SS CIN Free agency 2004 – -0.2 – –
Matt Maloney P CIN Trade 2007 2 -0.2 -0.1 –
Adam Pettyjohn P CIN Free agency 2007 – -0.2 – –
Henry Rodríguez 2B CIN Intl FA 2007 – -0.2 – –
Yorman Rodríguez OF CIN Intl FA 2008 – -0.2 – –
Tommy Boggs P TEX Draft 1974 – -0.2 – –
Jose Gonzalez OF ANA Free agency 1992 – -0.3 – –
Ken Oberkfell 2B/3B ANA Free agency 1992 – -0.3 – –
Quinton McCracken OF CIN Free agency 2006 – -0.3 – –
Kirk Saarloos P CIN Trade 2007 – -0.3 – –
Jesús Sánchez P CIN Free agency 2004 – -0.3 – –
Tom Shearn P CIN Trade 2007 – -0.3 – –
Daryl Thompson P CIN Trade 2006 – -0.3 – –
Pedro Villarreal P CIN Draft 2008 2 -0.3 -0.2 –
Ricky Nelson OF SEA Draft 1981 – -0.3 – –
Andrew Lorraine P ANA Draft 1993 – -0.4 – –
Donald Lutz OF CIN Intl FA 2007 – -0.4 – –
Dewayne Wise OF CIN Free agency 2005 1 -0.4 -0.4 –
Brick Smith 1B SEA Draft 1981 – -0.4 – –
Jacob Cruz OF CIN Trade 2005 1 -0.4 -0.4 0.2
Carlos Contreras P CIN Intl FA 2008 – -0.5 – –
Adam Rosales 2B/3B/SS CIN Draft 2005 – -0.5 – –
Josh Fogg P CIN Free agency 2008 – -0.6 – –
Mike Matthews P CIN Free agency 2004 – -0.6 – –
Jordan Smith P CIN Draft 2006 – -0.6 – –
John Vander Wal OF CIN Free agency 2004 – -0.6 – –
Justin Lehr P CIN Free agency 2007 – -0.7 – –
Rod Correia SS ANA Trade 1992 – -0.8 – –
Neftali Soto 1B CIN Draft 2007 – -0.8 – –
Ricky Stone P CIN Free agency 2004 – -0.8 – –
Curtis Partch P CIN Draft 2007 – -0.9 – –
John Farrell P ANA Free agency 1992 1 -1.0 -1.0 0.0
Logan Ondrusek P CIN Draft 2005 2 -1.0 -0.5 –
Barry Bonnell OF SEA Trade 1983 – -1.0 – –
Joe Magrane P ANA Free agency 1993 1 -1.1 -1.1 0.1
Corey Patterson OF CIN Free agency 2008 – -1.1 – –
Mike Lincoln P CIN Free agency 2008 – -1.2 – –
Dave Hengel DH/OF SEA Draft 1983 – -1.4 – –
Domingo Ramos 3B/SS SEA Rule 5 1981 1 -1.4 -1.4 –
Todd Greene C ANA Draft 1993 1 -1.7 -1.7 –
George Wright OF TEX Draft 1977 – -3.2 – –

WAB = wins above what the team's payroll predicted (resource-controlled). WAR surplus = era-neutral value (WAR minus payroll in win-equivalents). Roster surplus $M = dollar value of WAR over cost. Build channels (realized fWAR): HG = home-grown via amateur draft / international signing; Trade = acquired minus surrendered (incl. purchases/waivers); FA = signed minus walked; R5 = Rule-5 / minor-league-draft pickups. Credit follows the acquisition year — home-grown to the regime at the player's draft/signing (not whoever was in the chair when he peaked), trade/FA/R5 to the GM who made the move. Players acquired as prospects before debuting (e.g. Smoltz, Bagwell; Rule-5 picks like Uggla) are counted as trade/R5, not home-grown. All are franchise-level outcomes during the stint, not solely attributable to one executive.

Graphs

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Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.