CIN⇄BOS

CINCIN Dan O'Brien net +$12.0M net +12.9

received +$12.8M+$12.8M ± $15M expected surplus · +$8.0M realized received 2.3 ± 2 expected · 13.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CIN's 2006 odds 8% → 17% (+8.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Bronson ArroyoP·29y·R/R

+$12.6M+$12.6M± $15M exp surplusrealized +$8.0M 2.3± 2 exp WARrealized 13.3

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.4/yr over 2.0 seasons

Talent

1.55/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

BOSBOS Jed Hoyer net −$12.0M net -12.9

received +$4.8M+$4.8M ± $23M expected surplus · −$4.0M realized received 1.1 ± 3 expected · 0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BOS's 2006 odds 12% → 6% (-6.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Wily Mo PeñaOF·24y·R/R

+$5.0M+$5.0M± $23M exp surplusrealized −$4.0M 1.1± 3 exp WARrealized 0.4

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.5/yr over 1.4 season

Talent

0.36/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.