Rosternomics

Reds CIN

200680–82 (0.494)
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GM: Dan O'Brien

Overview

Ranks vs the 30 teams in 2006, or a custom range (defaults to every team-season since 1985, when our data starts).

to

Front Office

PoorAverageGreat
Value
Payroll $M
$62M
Win %
0.494
TAB
+2.8
WAB
+0.8
Roster composition
Roster fWAR
34.5
Dead money %
46%
Depth Players
6.0
Dead WAR
-4.8

Offense

PoorAverageGreat

Pitching & Defense

PoorAverageGreat

Roster

2006 depth chart — stacked by playing time

C

RDavid Ross75
RJason LaRue63
BJavier Valentin46

1B

LScott Hatteberg131
RRich Aurilia47
LAndy Abad5
LAdam Dunn2
REdwin Encarnación2
BJavier Valentin2

2B

RBrandon Phillips142
BFelipe Lopez85
RRyan Freel13
RRich Aurilia10
LTony Womack9
RBrendan Harris7
BRay Olmedo5
RJuan Castro1

3B

REdwin Encarnación111
RRich Aurilia52
RRyan Freel13
RJuan Castro11
BRay Olmedo3

SS

RRoyce Clayton50
RJuan Castro42
RRich Aurilia26
BRay Olmedo4
RBrandon Phillips3

LF

LAdam Dunn156
LTodd Hollandsworth16
RRyan Freel13
RChris Denorfia11
LDewayne Wise9
BQuinton McCracken7
RNorris Hopper1

CF

LKen Griffey Jr.100
RRyan Freel54
RChris Denorfia12
BQuinton McCracken6
LDewayne Wise5
RNorris Hopper2

RF

RRyan Freel42
LTodd Hollandsworth18
RChris Denorfia15
RNorris Hopper13
LDewayne Wise4
BQuinton McCracken2
BRay Olmedo1

DH

LKen Griffey Jr.3
LAdam Dunn1
BJavier Valentin1
RRich Aurilia1

Starters

RAaron Harang5.4 WAR
RBronson Arroyo4.5 WAR
RElizardo Ramirez1.5 WAR
LEric Milton1.4 WAR
RKyle Lohse1.3 WAR
LBrandon Claussen0.4 WAR
RJustin Germano0.1 WAR
RJoe Mays0.1 WAR
RMatt Belisle-0.1 WAR
RSun-Woo Kim-0.1 WAR
LChris Michalak-0.1 WAR
LDave Williams-0.3 WAR

Bullpen

RDavid Weathers12 sv
RTodd Coffey15 h
LKent Mercker6 h
LChris Hammond6 h
LBill Bray3 h
LBrian Shackelford2 h
RMatt Belisle0 h
RRick White0 h

Each position shows its top 3 by games (top = starter) — click "+more" for the rest. The letter is bats/throws; marks a player traded mid-season. Starters are ranked by WAR, bullpen by holds; marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

Key additions (new vs 2005)

PlayerfWAR
Bronson Arroyo4.5
David Ross2.6
Scott Hatteberg2.1
Brandon Phillips1.4
Kyle Lohse1.3
Juan Castro0.8

Key subtractions (gone from 2005)

Player2005 fWAR
Joe Randa1.6
Sean Casey1.3
Jacob Cruz0.4
Ryan Wagner0.3
Randy Keisler0.2
Josh Hancock0.1

Contract Value

WAR translated into tier-adjusted market value, then compared with what the player was paid by Reds. Guaranteed contracts from the 2015-present contract-data period use the known contract period through 2006; everyone else is shown as a 2006 season snapshot.

PlayerPeriodfWARTier Market $MPaid $MSurplus $M$ / WARTierContract
Aaron Harang 2006 +5.4 +108.2 2.4 +105.9 $0.4M 2.50×
Bronson Arroyo 2006 +4.5 +79.5 3.0 +76.5 $0.7M 2.19×
Ryan Freel 2006 +3.8 +54.4 1.3 +53.1 $0.3M 1.79×
Rich Aurilia 2006 +3.0 +26.5 1.3 +25.2 $0.4M 1.12×
David Ross 2006 +2.6 +20.7 0.5 +20.2 $0.2M 1.00×
Austin Kearns 2006 +1.9 +18.0 1.1 +17.0 $0.6M 1.22×
Edwin Encarnación 2006 +1.9 +13.0 0.3 +12.7 $0.2M 0.85×
Scott Hatteberg 2006 +2.1 +13.5 0.8 +12.7 $0.4M 0.81×
Todd Coffey 2006 +1.0 +11.2 0.3 +10.9 $0.3M 1.34×
Kyle Lohse 2006 +1.3 +11.0 1.4 +9.6 $1.0M 1.02×
Adam Dunn 2006 +1.5 +15.0 7.5 +7.5 $4.9M 1.22×
Chris Denorfia 2006 +0.9 +5.8 0.3 +5.5 $0.4M 0.83×
Felipe Lopez 2006 +1.3 +6.0 1.5 +4.5 $1.1M 0.56×
Brandon Claussen 2006 +0.4 +3.6 0.4 +3.3 $0.8M 1.02×
Juan Castro 2006 +0.8 +3.8 0.5 +3.3 $0.7M 0.61×
Javier Valentin 2006 +0.7 +2.8 1.1 +1.6 $1.7M 0.52×
Eric Milton 2006 +1.4 +11.2 9.8 +1.4 $7.1M 1.02×
Eddie Guardado 2006 +0.3 +3.3 2.2 +1.2 $7.0M 1.34×
Gary Majewski 2006 +0.1 +0.8 0.1 +0.7 $1.3M 1.34×
Joe Mays 2006 +0.1 +1.1 0.5 +0.6 $3.8M 1.02×
Scott Schoeneweis 2006 +0.1 +1.2 0.6 +0.6 $5.6M 1.34×
Chris Hammond 2006 +0.2 +1.1 0.8 +0.3 $3.8M 0.67×
Brandon Watson 2006 +0.0 +0.1 0.0 +0.1 $1.7M 0.83×
Tony Womack 2006 +0.1 +0.4 0.6 -0.2 $7.0M 0.56×
Jason Johnson 2006 +0.0 +0.2 0.6 -0.3 $12.8M 0.67×
Mike Burns 2006 -0.0 -0.1 0.2 -0.3 0.67×
Andy Abad 2006 -0.0 -0.0 0.3 -0.4 0.56×
Rick White 2006 -0.0 -0.2 0.2 -0.5 0.67×
Sun-Woo Kim 2006 -0.1 -0.5 0.1 -0.7 1.02×
Cody Ross 2006 -0.1 -0.7 0.0 -0.8 0.83×
Matt Belisle 2006 -0.1 -0.4 0.3 -0.8 0.67×
Rheal Cormier 2006 -0.1 -0.5 0.8 -1.4 0.67×
Ryan Franklin 2006 -0.1 -0.6 0.8 -1.4 0.67×
Royce Clayton 2006 -0.2 -1.1 0.4 -1.5 0.61×
Todd Hollandsworth 2006 -0.3 -1.7 0.3 -2.1 0.83×
Esteban Yan 2006 -0.3 -1.7 0.6 -2.3 0.67×
Dave Williams 2006 -0.3 -2.2 0.8 -3.0 1.02×
Kent Mercker 2006 -0.4 -2.0 1.6 -3.5 0.67×
Jason LaRue 2006 +0.1 +0.3 3.9 -3.6 $50.1M 0.52×
David Weathers 2006 -0.4 -4.3 1.5 -5.8 1.34×
Ken Griffey Jr. 2006 -0.6 -3.9 10.5 -14.4 0.83×
Bill Bray 2006 +0.3 +1.7 0.67×
Brandon Phillips 2006 +1.4 +6.0 0.56×
Brendan Harris 2006 -0.1 -0.3 0.56×
Brian Shackelford 2006 -0.2 -1.2 0.67×
Chris Michalak 2006 -0.1 -0.7 1.02×
Dewayne Wise 2006 -0.5 -3.3 0.83×
Elizardo Ramirez 2006 +1.5 +17.9 1.49×
Jason Standridge 2006 -0.0 -0.2 0.67×
Justin Germano 2006 +0.1 +0.4 1.02×
Mike Gosling 2006 -0.1 -0.7 0.67×
Norris Hopper 2006 +0.4 +2.6 0.83×
Quinton McCracken 2006 -0.3 -1.9 0.83×
Ray Olmedo 2006 -0.4 -1.9 0.56×
Total+34.5+411.261.2+331.4

Trades

Every graded 2006 deal involving the Reds — best expected value first. Surplus is realized value in $M; 17 total.

2006 · CIN / BOS
CIN · Dan O'Brien +$12.0M
Bronson Arroyo
BOS · Jed Hoyer −$12.0M
Wily Mo Peña
CIN came out ahead by $12.0M
2006 · BOS / CIN
BOS · Jed Hoyer +$0.0M
Mike Burns
CIN · Dan O'Brien +$0.0M
Tim Bausher
Even trade
2006 · PHI / CIN
PHI · Pat Gillick +$6.4M
Zac Stott
CIN · Dan O'Brien −$6.4M
Ryan Franklin
PHI came out ahead by $6.4M
2006 · CIN / SDP
CIN · Dan O'Brien +$23.2M
David Ross
SDP · Kevin Towers −$23.2M
Bobby Basham
CIN came out ahead by $23.2M
2006 · LAD / CIN
LAD · Ned Colletti +$1.6M
Ben Kozlowski
CIN · Dan O'Brien −$1.6M
Cody Ross
LAD came out ahead by $1.6M
2006 · NYM / CIN
NYM · Omar Minaya +$0.0M
David Williams
CIN · Dan O'Brien +$0.0M
Robert Manuel
Even trade
2006 · CIN / MIN
CIN · Dan O'Brien +$23.2M
Kyle Lohse
MIN · Terry Ryan −$23.2M
Zach Ward
CIN came out ahead by $23.2M
2006 · CIN / MIA
CIN · Dan O'Brien +$0.0M
Ryan Jorgensen
MIA · Larry Beinfest +$0.0M
Carlos Piste
Even trade
2006 · ANA / CIN
ANA · Bill Stoneman +$4.0M
Kyle Edens
CIN · Dan O'Brien −$4.0M
Esteban Yan
ANA came out ahead by $4.0M
2006 · TOR / CIN
TOR · JP Ricciardi +$5.6M
Trevor Lawhorn
CIN · Dan O'Brien −$5.6M
Scott Schoeneweis
TOR came out ahead by $5.6M
2006 · CIN / CLE
CIN · Dan O'Brien +$119.2M
Brandon Phillips
CLE · Mark Shapiro −$119.2M
Jeff Stevens
CIN came out ahead by $119.2M
2006 · MIN / CIN
MIN · Terry Ryan +$8.8M
Brandon Roberts
CIN · Dan O'Brien −$8.8M
Juan Castro
MIN came out ahead by $8.8M
2006 · ARI / CIN
ARI · Josh Byrnes +$0.8M
Abe Woody
CIN · Dan O'Brien −$0.8M
Jerry Gil
ARI came out ahead by $0.8M
2006 · PHI / CIN
PHI · Pat Gillick +$11.2M
Justin Germano
CIN · Dan O'Brien −$11.2M
Rheal Cormier
PHI came out ahead by $11.2M
2006 · PHI / CIN
PHI · Pat Gillick +$4.0M
Javon Moran, Brad Key
CIN · Dan O'Brien −$4.0M
Jeff Conine
PHI came out ahead by $4.0M
2006 · SEA / CIN
SEA · Bill Bavasi +$10.4M
Travis Chick
CIN · Dan O'Brien −$10.4M
Eddie Guardado
SEA came out ahead by $10.4M
2006 · WSN / CIN
WSN · Jim Bowden +$49.6M
Austin Kearns, Felipe López, Ryan Wagner
CIN · Dan O'Brien −$49.6M
Gary Majewski, Royce Clayton, Bill Bray, Brendan Harris, Daryl Thompson
WSN came out ahead by $49.6M

Current & Historical Payroll

2006 payroll
$61.5M

What the front office was committed to as of 2006, 2006–2012. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (25)

PlayerAgeSvc2006200720082009201020112012
Ken Griffey Jr.3617.000$10.5M$8.4M$5.9MFREE AGENT
Eric Milton308.000$9.8M$10.3MFREE AGENT
Jason LaRue327.000$3.9MFREE AGENT
Bronson Arroyo296.000$3.0M$4.1M$4.6M$10.1M$11.6M$7.7M$12.0M
Eddie Guardado3513.000$2.2M$500kFREE AGENT
Kent Mercker3817.000$1.6MFREE AGENT$600k
David Weathers3615.000$1.5M$2.2M$3.3M$2.2MFREE AGENT
Rich Aurilia3411.000$1.3MFREE AGENT
Javier Valentin309.000$1.1M$1.2MFREE AGENT
Rheal Cormier3915.000$820k$2.2MFREE AGENT
Chris Hammond4016.000$800kFREE AGENT
Ryan Franklin337.000$788kFREE AGENT
Scott Hatteberg3611.000$750k$1.5M$1.9MFREE AGENT
Esteban Yan3110.000$648kFREE AGENT
Tony Womack3613.000$643kFREE AGENT
Scott Schoeneweis327.000$620kFREE AGENT
Jason Johnson329.000$583kFREE AGENT
Joe Mays307.000$538kFREE AGENT
Juan Castro3411.000$519k$925k$863kFREE AGENT
Royce Clayton3615.000$365kFREE AGENT
Todd Hollandsworth3311.000$340kFREE AGENT
Rick White3712.000$244kFREE AGENT
Quinton McCracken3511.000FREE AGENT
Chris Michalak358.000FREE AGENT
Dewayne Wise286.000FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (16)

PlayerAgeSvc2006200720082009201020112012
Adam Dunn265.000$7.5MFREE AGENT
Aaron Harang284.000$2.4MARB 3FREE AGENT
Felipe Lopez265.000$1.5MFREE AGENT
Kyle Lohse275.000$1.4MFREE AGENT
Ryan Freel305.000$1.3MFREE AGENT
Austin Kearns264.000$1.1MARB 3FREE AGENT
Dave Williams275.000$800kFREE AGENT
David Ross294.000$500kARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Claussen273.000$370kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Belisle263.000$344kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andy Abad335.000$327kFREE AGENT
Sun-Woo Kim285.000$150kFREE AGENT
Cody Ross253.000$6kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Standridge275.000FREE AGENT
Ray Olmedo253.000ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Phillips254.000ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (13)

PlayerAgeSvc2006200720082009201020112012
Todd Coffey251.000$339kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Edwin Encarnación231.000$332kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Denorfia251.000$327kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Burns271.000$203kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gary Majewski262.000$103kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Watson241.000$33kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Gosling252.000ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Elizardo Ramirez232.000ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brendan Harris252.000ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Germano232.000ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Shackelford29
Bill Bray230.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Norris Hopper270.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

How each 2006 acquisition stacked onto Reds's playoff-odds curve. The side table is ranked by PPA.