RRosternomics
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Reds CIN

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GM: Dan O'Brien

Overview

WINDOW ↗ rising
cheap & winning · year 1 in this regime · payroll 0.81× league · TAB +2.9
+2.9TAB — talent above budget11th/30
+0.8WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)15th/30
6.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars16th/30
-4.8dead WAR — sub-replacement drag20th/30
46%dead money %24th/30
0.494win %15th/30
34.5roster fWAR14th/30
+4surplus $M (value vs cost)9th/30
$62Mpayroll $M22nd/30

Roster

CFKen Griffey Jr. 100GRyan Freel 54GChris Denorfia 12G
LFAdam Dunn 156GTodd Hollandsworth 31GRyan Freel 13G
RFRyan Freel 42GTodd Hollandsworth 34GChris Denorfia 15G
SSRoyce Clayton 129GJuan Castro 77GRich Aurilia 26G
2BBrandon Phillips 142GRyan Freel 13GRich Aurilia 10G
3BEdwin Encarnación 111GRich Aurilia 52GJuan Castro 20G
1BScott Hatteberg 131GRich Aurilia 47GEdwin Encarnación 2G
STARTERSAaron Harang 5.4WARBronson Arroyo 4.5WARElizardo Ramirez 1.5WAREric Milton 1.4WARKyle Lohse 1.3WAR
CDavid Ross 75GJason LaRue 63GJavier Valentin 46G
DHKen Griffey Jr. 3GRich Aurilia 1GAdam Dunn 1G
BULLPEN★ David Weathers 12svScott Schoeneweis 19hTodd Coffey 15hRheal Cormier 14hRyan Franklin 8hGary Majewski 8hBill Bray 3hEddie Guardado 2h
CDavid Ross 75 · Jason LaRue 63 · Javier Valentin 46
1BScott Hatteberg 131 · Rich Aurilia 47 · Edwin Encarnación 2
2BBrandon Phillips 142 · Ryan Freel 13 · Rich Aurilia 10
3BEdwin Encarnación 111 · Rich Aurilia 52 · Juan Castro 20
SSRoyce Clayton 129 · Juan Castro 77 · Rich Aurilia 26
LFAdam Dunn 156 · Todd Hollandsworth 31 · Ryan Freel 13
CFKen Griffey Jr. 100 · Ryan Freel 54 · Chris Denorfia 12
RFRyan Freel 42 · Todd Hollandsworth 34 · Chris Denorfia 15
DHKen Griffey Jr. 3 · Rich Aurilia 1 · Adam Dunn 1
SPAaron Harang 5.4 · Bronson Arroyo 4.5 · Elizardo Ramirez 1.5 · Eric Milton 1.4 · Kyle Lohse 1.3
BP★ David Weathers 12 · Scott Schoeneweis 19 · Todd Coffey 15 · Rheal Cormier 14 · Ryan Franklin 8 · Gary Majewski 8 · Bill Bray 3 · Eddie Guardado 2

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2006 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Aaron Harang 28 arb 365.4 2.4 +8.4
Bronson Arroyo 29 FA-elig 354.5 3.0 +6.0
Ryan Freel 30 arb 1323.8 1.3 +6.3
Rich Aurilia 34 FA-elig 1223.0 1.3 +4.6
David Ross 29 arb 902.6 0.5 +4.7
Scott Hatteberg 36 FA-elig 1412.1 0.8 +3.4
Edwin Encarnación 23 pre-arb 1171.9 0.3 +3.5
Austin Kearns↔ WSN 26 arb 871.9 1.1 +2.6
Adam Dunn 26 arb 1601.5 7.5 -4.4
Elizardo Ramirez 23 – 211.5 – –
Eric Milton 30 FA-elig 281.4 9.8 -7.1
Brandon Phillips 25 – 1491.4 – –
Kyle Lohse↔ MIN 27 arb 121.3 1.4 +1.3
Felipe Lopez↔ WSN 26 arb 851.3 1.5 +1.2
Todd Coffey 25 pre-arb 811.0 0.3 +1.8
Chris Denorfia 25 pre-arb 490.9 0.3 +1.4
Juan Castro↔ MIN 34 FA-elig 540.8 0.5 +1.0
Javier Valentin 30 FA-elig 920.7 1.1 +0.2
Brandon Claussen 27 arb 140.4 0.4 +0.5
Norris Hopper 27 – 210.4 – –
Bill Bray↔ WSN 23 – 290.3 – –
Eddie Guardado↔ SEA 35 FA-elig 150.3 2.2 -1.6
Chris Hammond 40 FA-elig 290.2 0.8 -0.4
Joe Mays↔ KCR 30 FA-elig 70.1 0.5 -0.3
Scott Schoeneweis↔ TOR 32 FA-elig 160.1 0.6 -0.4
Tony Womack↔ CHC 36 FA-elig 90.1 0.6 -0.5
Jason LaRue 32 FA-elig 720.1 3.9 -3.7
Gary Majewski↔ WSN 26 pre-arb 190.1 0.1 +0.0
Justin Germano 23 – 20.1 – –
Jason Johnson↔ BOS 32 FA-elig 40.0 0.6 -0.5
Brandon Watson↔ WSN 24 pre-arb 10.0 0.0 +0.0
Andy Abad 33 arb 5-0.0 0.3 -0.3
Mike Burns↔ BOS 27 pre-arb 11-0.0 0.2 -0.2
Jason Standridge 27 – 21-0.0 – –
Rick White↔ PHI 37 FA-elig 26-0.0 0.2 -0.3
Sun-Woo Kim↔ COL 28 arb 2-0.1 0.1 -0.3
Matt Belisle 26 arb 30-0.1 0.3 -0.5
Brendan Harris↔ WSN 25 – 8-0.1 – –
Chris Michalak 35 – 8-0.1 – –
Rheal Cormier↔ PHI 39 FA-elig 21-0.1 0.8 -1.0
Cody Ross↔ LAD 25 arb 2-0.1 0.0 -0.2
Ryan Franklin↔ PHI 33 FA-elig 20-0.1 0.8 -1.0
Mike Gosling 25 – 1-0.1 – –
Brian Shackelford 29 – 26-0.2 – –
Royce Clayton↔ WSN 36 FA-elig 50-0.2 0.4 -0.8
Todd Hollandsworth↔ CLE 33 FA-elig 34-0.3 0.3 -0.9
Dave Williams↔ NYM 27 arb 8-0.3 0.8 -1.3
Quinton McCracken 35 – 45-0.3 – –
Esteban Yan↔ ANA 31 FA-elig 14-0.3 0.6 -1.3
Kent Mercker 38 FA-elig 37-0.4 1.6 -2.3
David Weathers 36 FA-elig 67-0.4 1.5 -2.3
Ray Olmedo 25 – 30-0.4 – –
Dewayne Wise 28 – 31-0.5 – –
Ken Griffey Jr. 36 FA-elig 109-0.6 10.5 -11.6

Key additions (new vs 2005)

PlayerfWAR
Bronson Arroyo4.5
David Ross2.6
Scott Hatteberg2.1
Brandon Phillips1.4
Kyle Lohse1.3
Juan Castro0.8

Key subtractions (gone from 2005)

Player2005 fWAR
Joe Randa1.6
Sean Casey1.3
Jacob Cruz0.4
Ryan Wagner0.3
Randy Keisler0.2
Josh Hancock0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

2006 payroll
$61.5M

What the front office was committed to as of 2006, 2006–2012. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (25)

PlayerAgeSvc2006200720082009201020112012
Ken Griffey Jr.3617.000$10.5M$8.4M$5.9MFREE AGENT
Eric Milton308.000$9.8M$10.3MFREE AGENT
Jason LaRue327.000$3.9MFREE AGENT
Bronson Arroyo296.000$3.0M$4.1M$4.6M$10.1M$11.6M$7.7M$12.0M
Eddie Guardado3513.000$2.2M$500kFREE AGENT
Kent Mercker3817.000$1.6MFREE AGENT$600k
David Weathers3615.000$1.5M$2.2M$3.3M$2.2MFREE AGENT
Rich Aurilia3411.000$1.3MFREE AGENT
Javier Valentin309.000$1.1M$1.2MFREE AGENT
Rheal Cormier3915.000$820k$2.2MFREE AGENT
Chris Hammond4016.000$800kFREE AGENT
Ryan Franklin337.000$788kFREE AGENT
Scott Hatteberg3611.000$750k$1.5M$1.9MFREE AGENT
Esteban Yan3110.000$648kFREE AGENT
Tony Womack3613.000$643kFREE AGENT
Scott Schoeneweis327.000$620kFREE AGENT
Jason Johnson329.000$583kFREE AGENT
Joe Mays307.000$538kFREE AGENT
Juan Castro3411.000$519k$925k$863kFREE AGENT
Royce Clayton3615.000$365kFREE AGENT
Todd Hollandsworth3311.000$340kFREE AGENT
Rick White3712.000$244kFREE AGENT
Quinton McCracken3511.000—FREE AGENT
Chris Michalak358.000—FREE AGENT
Dewayne Wise286.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (16)

PlayerAgeSvc2006200720082009201020112012
Adam Dunn265.000$7.5MFREE AGENT
Aaron Harang284.000$2.4MARB 3FREE AGENT
Felipe Lopez265.000$1.5MFREE AGENT
Kyle Lohse275.000$1.4MFREE AGENT
Ryan Freel305.000$1.3MFREE AGENT
Austin Kearns264.000$1.1MARB 3FREE AGENT
Dave Williams275.000$800kFREE AGENT
David Ross294.000$500kARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Claussen273.000$370kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Belisle263.000$344kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andy Abad335.000$327kFREE AGENT
Sun-Woo Kim285.000$150kFREE AGENT
Cody Ross253.000$6kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Standridge275.000—FREE AGENT
Ray Olmedo253.000—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Phillips254.000—ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (13)

PlayerAgeSvc2006200720082009201020112012
Todd Coffey251.000$339kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Edwin Encarnación231.000$332kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Denorfia251.000$327kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Burns271.000$203kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gary Majewski262.000$103kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Watson241.000$33kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Gosling252.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Elizardo Ramirez232.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brendan Harris252.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Germano232.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Shackelford29–—
Bill Bray230.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Norris Hopper270.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Reds 2006; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.