RRosternomics
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Reds CIN

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GM: Dan O'Brien

Overview

REBUILD ↗ rising
cheap & losing · year 5 in this regime · payroll 0.8× league · TAB -1.2
-1.2TAB — talent above budget19th/30
-6.0WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)23rd/30
8.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars7th/30
-4.1dead WAR — sub-replacement drag12th/30
32%dead money %17th/30
0.451win %23rd/30
30.2roster fWAR22nd/30
+2surplus $M (value vs cost)10th/30
$58Mpayroll $M19th/30

Roster

CFKen Griffey Jr. 124GWily Mo Peña 25GRyan Freel 18G
LFAdam Dunn 133GRyan Freel 25GWily Mo Peña 10G
RFAustin Kearns 107GWily Mo Peña 50GRyan Freel 13G
SSFelipe López 140GRich Aurilia 30GRay Olmedo 5G
2BRich Aurilia 68GRyan Freel 48GRay Olmedo 31G
3BEdwin Encarnación 56GRich Aurilia 18GRyan Freel 10G
1BSean Casey 134GAdam Dunn 33GJacob Cruz 5G
STARTERSAaron Harang 3.6WARBrandon Claussen 1.7WAREric Milton 0.7WARMatt Belisle 0.4WARLuke Hudson 0.1WAR
CJason LaRue 109GJavier Valentin 62GDane Sardinha 1G
DHJoe Randa 2GKen Griffey Jr. 2GJacob Cruz 1G
BULLPEN★ David Weathers 15svKent Mercker 20hRyan Wagner 12hJason Standridge 5hTodd Coffey 3hBrian Shackelford 3hRicky Stone 2hRandy Keisler 0h
CJason LaRue 109 · Javier Valentin 62 · Dane Sardinha 1
1BSean Casey 134 · Adam Dunn 33 · Jacob Cruz 5
2BRich Aurilia 68 · Ryan Freel 48 · Ray Olmedo 31
3BEdwin Encarnación 56 · Rich Aurilia 18 · Ryan Freel 10
SSFelipe López 140 · Rich Aurilia 30 · Ray Olmedo 5
LFAdam Dunn 133 · Ryan Freel 25 · Wily Mo Peña 10
CFKen Griffey Jr. 124 · Wily Mo Peña 25 · Ryan Freel 18
RFAustin Kearns 107 · Wily Mo Peña 50 · Ryan Freel 13
DHJoe Randa 2 · Ken Griffey Jr. 2 · Jacob Cruz 1
SPAaron Harang 3.6 · Brandon Claussen 1.7 · Eric Milton 0.7 · Matt Belisle 0.4 · Luke Hudson 0.1
BP★ David Weathers 15 · Kent Mercker 20 · Ryan Wagner 12 · Jason Standridge 5 · Todd Coffey 3 · Brian Shackelford 3 · Ricky Stone 2 · Randy Keisler 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2005 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Felipe Lopez 25 arb 1484.7 0.4 +8.4
Aaron Harang 27 arb 323.6 0.4 +6.4
Adam Dunn 25 arb 1603.3 4.6 +1.7
Ken Griffey Jr. 35 FA-elig 1282.9 12.5 -6.9
Jason LaRue 31 FA-elig 1102.7 3.0 +2.1
Ryan Freel 29 arb 1032.3 0.4 +4.0
Javier Valentin 29 FA-elig 762.1 0.5 +3.6
Austin Kearns 25 arb 1122.0 0.9 +2.9
Rich Aurilia 33 FA-elig 1142.0 0.6 +3.2
Brandon Claussen 26 pre-arb 291.7 0.3 +2.9
Joe Randa↔ SDP 35 FA-elig 921.6 1.3 +1.7
Sean Casey 30 FA-elig 1371.3 7.8 -5.3
Eric Milton 29 FA-elig 340.7 5.3 -4.0
David Weathers 35 FA-elig 730.7 1.2 -0.0
Jacob Cruz 32 FA-elig 1100.4 0.5 +0.2
Matt Belisle 25 pre-arb 610.4 0.3 +0.4
Kent Mercker 37 FA-elig 780.3 1.2 -0.7
Ryan Wagner 22 pre-arb 420.3 0.4 +0.1
Edwin Encarnación 22 – 690.2 – –
Chris Denorfia 24 – 180.2 – –
Todd Coffey 24 – 570.2 – –
Brian Shackelford 28 – 370.2 – –
Randy Keisler 29 – 240.2 – –
Josh Hancock 27 arb 110.1 0.3 -0.1
Luke Hudson 28 arb 210.1 0.3 -0.1
Ben Weber 35 arb 100.0 0.6 -0.5
Jason Romano 26 – 190.0 – –
D'Angelo Jimenez 27 FA-elig 350.0 2.9 -2.8
Ray Olmedo 24 pre-arb 54-0.0 0.3 -0.4
Anderson Machado↔ COL 24 pre-arb 2-0.0 0.1 -0.2
Dane Sardinha 26 – 1-0.1 – –
Miguel Perez 21 – 2-0.1 – –
Allan Simpson↔ COL 27 pre-arb 9-0.1 0.3 -0.4
Kenny Kelly↔ WSN 26 – 7-0.1 – –
Jason Standridge↔ TEX 26 – 32-0.1 – –
Ramon Ortiz 32 FA-elig 30-0.1 3.5 -3.8
Paul Wilson 32 FA-elig 9-0.1 3.6 -3.9
Luis Lopez 34 – 17-0.2 – –
Chris Booker 28 – 3-0.2 – –
Aaron Holbert 32 – 22-0.3 – –
William Bergolla 22 – 17-0.4 – –
Elizardo Ramirez 22 – 6-0.4 – –
Wily Mo Peña 23 arb 99-0.4 0.4 -1.2
Joe Valentine 25 pre-arb 16-0.4 0.3 -1.2
Ricky Stone 30 – 23-0.5 – –
Danny Graves↔ NYM 31 FA-elig 20-0.5 3.1 -4.1

Key additions (new vs 2004)

PlayerfWAR
Rich Aurilia2.0
Joe Randa1.6
Eric Milton0.7
David Weathers0.7
Matt Belisle0.4
Kent Mercker0.3

Key subtractions (gone from 2004)

Player2004 fWAR
Barry Larkin1.5
Cory Lidle1.5
Jose Acevedo0.9
Darren Bragg0.8
Todd Jones0.8
Todd Van Poppel0.4

Current & Historical Payroll

2005 payroll
$57.6M

What the front office was committed to as of 2005, 2005–2011. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (15)

PlayerAgeSvc2005200620072008200920102011
Ken Griffey Jr.3516.000$12.5M$10.5M$8.4M$5.9MFREE AGENT
Sean Casey308.000$7.8MFREE AGENT
Eric Milton297.000$5.3M$9.8M$10.3MFREE AGENT
Paul Wilson329.000$3.6MFREE AGENT
Ramon Ortiz326.000$3.5MFREE AGENT
Danny Graves319.000$3.1MFREE AGENT
Jason LaRue316.000$3.0M$3.9MFREE AGENT
D'Angelo Jimenez276.000$2.9MFREE AGENT
Joe Randa3510.000$1.3MFREE AGENT
David Weathers3514.000$1.2M$1.5M$2.2M$3.3M$2.2MFREE AGENT
Kent Mercker3716.000$1.2M$1.6MFREE AGENT$600k
Rich Aurilia3310.000$600k$1.3MFREE AGENT
Jacob Cruz329.000$500kFREE AGENT
Javier Valentin298.000$450k$1.1M$1.2MFREE AGENT
Luis Lopez3412.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (12)

PlayerAgeSvc2005200620072008200920102011
Adam Dunn254.000$4.6MARB 3FREE AGENT
Austin Kearns253.000$930kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ben Weber355.000$600kFREE AGENT
Wily Mo Peña233.000$440kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Aaron Harang273.000$440kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Felipe Lopez254.000$415kARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Freel294.000$405kARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Hancock273.000$327kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luke Hudson283.000$318kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ricky Stone304.000—ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Standridge264.000—ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Romano263.000—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (19)

PlayerAgeSvc2005200620072008200920102011
Ryan Wagner222.000$380kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ray Olmedo242.000$322kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Claussen262.000$320kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Valentine252.000$320kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Belisle252.000$316kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Allan Simpson271.000$260kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Anderson Machado242.000$105kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Aaron Holbert32–—
Kenny Kelly26–—
Randy Keisler29–—
Dane Sardinha26–—
Chris Booker28–—
Edwin Encarnación220.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Elizardo Ramirez221.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
William Bergolla22–—
Brian Shackelford28–—
Miguel Perez21–—
Todd Coffey240.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Denorfia240.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Reds 2005; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.