RRosternomics
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Reds CIN

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GM: Dan O'Brien

Overview

REBUILD ↘ cooling
cheap & losing · year 4 in this regime · payroll 0.7× league · TAB -8.8
-8.8TAB — talent above budget25th/30
-1.4WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)21st/30
4.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars26th/30
-8.1dead WAR — sub-replacement drag26th/30
59%dead money %29th/30
0.469win %19th/30
21.1roster fWAR27th/30
-7surplus $M (value vs cost)13th/30
$47Mpayroll $M21st/30

Roster

CFKen Griffey Jr. 76GWily Mo Peña 46GRyan Freel 42G
LFAdam Dunn 156GRyan Freel 12GJacob Cruz 4G
RFAustin Kearns 60GWily Mo Peña 51GRyan Freel 46G
SSBarry Larkin 85GFelipe López 51GJuan Castro 31G
2BD'Angelo Jimenez 146GRyan Freel 15GJuan Castro 12G
3BJuan Castro 78GRyan Freel 56GBrandon Larson 35G
1BSean Casey 145GTim Hummel 13GAdam Dunn 10G
STARTERSPaul Wilson 1.7WARAaron Harang 1.3WARJose Acevedo 0.9WARLuke Hudson 0.8WARBrandon Claussen 0.6WAR
CJason LaRue 111GJavier Valentin 55GCorky Miller 12G
DHJacob Cruz 2GSean Casey 1GAdam Dunn 1G
BULLPEN★ Danny Graves 41svJohn Riedling 14hGabe White 12hPhil Norton 9hRyan Wagner 8hMike Matthews 5hJoe Valentine 5hBrian Reith 4h
CJason LaRue 111 · Javier Valentin 55 · Corky Miller 12
1BSean Casey 145 · Tim Hummel 13 · Adam Dunn 10
2BD'Angelo Jimenez 146 · Ryan Freel 15 · Juan Castro 12
3BJuan Castro 78 · Ryan Freel 56 · Brandon Larson 35
SSBarry Larkin 85 · Felipe López 51 · Juan Castro 31
LFAdam Dunn 156 · Ryan Freel 12 · Jacob Cruz 4
CFKen Griffey Jr. 76 · Wily Mo Peña 46 · Ryan Freel 42
RFAustin Kearns 60 · Wily Mo Peña 51 · Ryan Freel 46
DHJacob Cruz 2 · Sean Casey 1 · Adam Dunn 1
SPPaul Wilson 1.7 · Aaron Harang 1.3 · Jose Acevedo 0.9 · Luke Hudson 0.8 · Brandon Claussen 0.6
BP★ Danny Graves 41 · John Riedling 14 · Gabe White 12 · Phil Norton 9 · Ryan Wagner 8 · Mike Matthews 5 · Joe Valentine 5 · Brian Reith 4

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2004 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Adam Dunn 24 arb 1615.3 0.4 +8.6
Sean Casey 29 FA-elig 1463.4 6.8 -0.9
D'Angelo Jimenez 26 arb 1523.1 1.6 +3.7
Ryan Freel 28 arb 1432.6 0.3 +4.1
Wily Mo Peña 22 pre-arb 1101.9 0.3 +2.9
Paul Wilson 31 FA-elig 291.7 3.5 -0.5
Jason LaRue 30 arb 1141.7 2.6 +0.3
Barry Larkin 40 FA-elig 1111.5 0.7 +1.9
Cory Lidle↔ PHI 32 FA-elig 241.5 1.9 +0.6
Aaron Harang 26 pre-arb 281.3 0.4 +1.9
Jose Acevedo 26 arb 390.9 0.3 +1.3
Luke Hudson 27 – 90.8 – –
Darren Bragg↔ SDP 34 – 380.8 – –
Todd Jones↔ PHI 36 FA-elig 510.8 0.3 +1.0
Brandon Claussen 25 – 140.6 – –
Todd Van Poppel 32 FA-elig 480.4 0.3 +0.4
Felipe Lopez 24 – 790.4 0.4 +0.3
Austin Kearns 24 pre-arb 640.2 0.4 -0.1
Phil Norton 28 arb 690.2 0.3 -0.0
Anderson Machado 23 pre-arb 170.1 0.3 -0.1
Ray Olmedo 23 pre-arb 80.0 0.3 -0.3
Javier Valentin 28 FA-elig 82-0.1 0.5 -0.6
Aaron Myette 26 – 5-0.1 – –
Danny Graves 30 FA-elig 68-0.1 6.0 -6.2
Jason Romano↔ TBR 25 – 22-0.1 – –
Jung Keun Bong 23 – 3-0.1 – –
Ken Griffey Jr. 34 FA-elig 83-0.2 12.5 -12.8
Jimmy Haynes 31 FA-elig 5-0.2 2.5 -2.8
Joe Valentine 24 – 24-0.2 – –
Ryan Wagner 21 pre-arb 49-0.2 0.3 -0.7
Jesus Sanchez 29 – 3-0.3 – –
Gabe White↔ NYY 32 FA-elig 40-0.3 1.2 -1.7
Jermaine Clark 27 – 14-0.4 – –
Josh Hancock↔ PHI 26 – 12-0.4 – –
Brian Reith 26 arb 22-0.4 0.3 -1.1
Juan Padilla↔ NYY 27 – 12-0.4 – –
Juan Castro 32 FA-elig 111-0.5 1.0 -1.9
John Riedling 28 arb 70-0.5 0.7 -1.5
Brandon Larson 28 arb 40-0.5 0.3 -1.3
Mike Matthews 30 – 35-0.6 – –
Tim Hummel 25 – 56-0.6 – –
John Vander Wal 38 – 42-0.6 – –
Corky Miller 28 arb 13-0.6 0.3 -1.4
Jacob Cruz 31 – 96-0.7 – –

Key additions (new vs 2003)

PlayerfWAR
Cory Lidle1.5
Luke Hudson0.8
Darren Bragg0.8
Todd Jones0.8
Brandon Claussen0.6
Anderson Machado0.1

Key subtractions (gone from 2003)

Player2003 fWAR
Jose Guillen3.2
Aaron Boone1.6
Russell Branyan1.2
Scott Randall0.6
John Bale0.5
Dernell Stenson0.5

Current & Historical Payroll

2004 payroll
$46.9M

What the front office was committed to as of 2004, 2004–2010. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (16)

PlayerAgeSvc2004200520062007200820092010
Ken Griffey Jr.3415.000$12.5M$12.5M$10.5M$8.4M$5.9MFREE AGENT
Sean Casey297.000$6.8M$7.8MFREE AGENT
Danny Graves308.000$6.0M$3.1MFREE AGENT
Paul Wilson318.000$3.5M$3.6MFREE AGENT
Jimmy Haynes319.000$2.5MFREE AGENT
Cory Lidle327.000$1.9MFREE AGENT
Gabe White3210.000$1.2MFREE AGENT
Juan Castro329.000$1.0MFREE AGENT$519k$925k$863k
Barry Larkin4018.000$700kFREE AGENT
Javier Valentin287.000$500k$450k$1.1M$1.2MFREE AGENT
Todd Jones3611.000$327kFREE AGENT
Todd Van Poppel3213.000$300kFREE AGENT
Darren Bragg3410.000—FREE AGENT
Jacob Cruz318.000—$500kFREE AGENT
John Vander Wal3813.000—FREE AGENT
Jesus Sanchez296.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (14)

PlayerAgeSvc2004200520062007200820092010
Jason LaRue305.000$2.6MFREE AGENT
D'Angelo Jimenez265.000$1.6MFREE AGENT
John Riedling284.000$650kARB 3FREE AGENT
Adam Dunn243.000$445kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Felipe Lopez243.000$360kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jose Acevedo263.000$340kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Reith263.000$327kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Freel283.000$320kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Larson283.000$318kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Corky Miller283.000$317kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Phil Norton284.000$304kARB 3FREE AGENT
Aaron Myette265.000—FREE AGENT
Mike Matthews304.000—ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jermaine Clark273.000—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (14)

PlayerAgeSvc2004200520062007200820092010
Austin Kearns242.000$400kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Aaron Harang262.000$360kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Wily Mo Peña222.000$345kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ray Olmedo231.000$322kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Wagner211.000$302kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Anderson Machado231.000$300kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luke Hudson272.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tim Hummel25–—
Jason Romano252.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jung Keun Bong232.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Claussen251.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Hancock262.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Valentine241.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Juan Padilla27–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Reds 2004; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.