ANA⇄TOR

ANAANA Dan O'Brien net −$18.4M net +0.6

received −$12.8M−$13.6M ± $14M expected surplus · −$21.6M realized received 2.1 ± 2 expected · 0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ANA's 1993 odds 1% → 1% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Kelly Gruber3B·31y·R/R

−$12.8M−$13.5M± $14M exp surplusrealized −$21.6M 2.1± 2 exp WARrealized 0.2

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.1/yr over 2.3 seasons

Talent

1.44/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.97 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

TORTOR Pat Gillick net +$18.4M net -0.6

received +$6.4M+$6.4M ± $29M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 2.2 ± 4 expected · -0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TOR's 1993 odds 82% → 80% (-2.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Luis Sojo2B·28y·R/R

+$6.2M+$6.2M± $29M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 2.2± 4 exp WARrealized -0.4

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.9/yr over 1.3 season

Talent

0.58/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs × 0.96 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.