BOS⇄CIN

BOSBOS Jed Hoyer net +$0.0M net +0.1

received −$4.0M−$4.0M ± $17M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 2 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BOS's 2006 odds 6% → 6% (+0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mike BurnsP·27y·R/R

−$3.7M−$3.7M± $17M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 2 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

#907 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.3/yr over 0.9 season

Talent

0.01/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.80 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

CINCIN Dan O'Brien net +$0.0M net -0.1

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $27M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.0 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CIN's 2006 odds 17% → 17% (-0.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Tim BausherP·27y·R/R

+$0.7M+$0.7M± $27M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.0± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#819 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs × 0.76 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.