CIN⇄TOR

CINCIN Dan O'Brien net −$5.6M net +0.1

received −$0.8M−$8.0M ± $9M expected surplus · −$5.6M realized received 1.0 ± 1 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CIN's 2006 odds 16% → 17% (+0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Scott SchoeneweisP·32y·L/L

−$0.5M−$7.8M± $9M exp surplusrealized −$5.6M 1.0± 1 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.0/yr over 2.5 seasons

Talent

0.75/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.92 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

TORTOR JP Ricciardi net +$5.6M net -0.1

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $24M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TOR's 2006 odds 47% → 46% (-0.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Trevor Lawhorn3B·23y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $24M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#258 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.