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December 21, 2007

TEX⇄CIN

TEX won this trade +$256.8M surplus TEX won this trade +19.3 WAR
TEXTEX Jon Daniels net +$256.8M net +19.3
received +$88.8M+$88.8M ± $53M expected surplus · +$280.0M realized received 10.3 ± 7 expected · 23.2 realized WAR
Playoff odds: this deal moved TEX's 2008 odds 10% → 13% (+2.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗
receives — most valuable first
Josh HamiltonOF·27y·L/L
+$89.1M+$89.1M± $53M exp surplusrealized +$280.0M 10.3± 7 exp WARrealized 23.2
Prior
#1 overall draft pick → 1.24/yr
Evidence
recent form 3.8/yr over 0.6 season
Talent
2.08/yr blended
Horizon
5.0 control yrs × 0.99 age decline
CINCIN Dan O'Brien net −$256.8M net -19.3
received +$10.4M+$10.4M ± $40M expected surplus · +$23.2M realized received 2.8 ± 5 expected · 3.9 realized WAR
Playoff odds: this deal moved CIN's 2008 odds 2% → 1% (-0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗
receives — most valuable first
Edinson VólquezP·24y·R/R
+$8.6M+$8.6M± $33M exp surplusrealized +$23.2M 1.6± 4 exp WARrealized 3.5
Prior
Composite #56.0 pedigree (Baseball America #56 (2006)) — fell off 2 lists since, regressed — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr
Evidence
recent form 0.5/yr over 0.5 season
Talent
0.28/yr blended
Horizon
5.5 control yrs
Danny HerreraP·23y·L/L
+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.4
Prior
#1345 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr
Evidence
no MLB track record — leans on pedigree
Talent
0.21/yr blended
Horizon
5.5 control yrs

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.

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Decision-maker records extend to 1933; resource-controlled WAR and payroll metrics cover 1985–2026. Data sources include FanGraphs, Baseball-Reference, the Chadwick Bureau register, the Lahman Database, prospect rankings from Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, and FanGraphs, and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0).
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