PHI⇄CIN

PHIPHI Ed Wade net +$4.0M net +0.4

received +$3.2M+$3.2M ± $24M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.7 ± 3 expected · 0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PHI's 2004 odds 40% → 42% (+2.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Brad CorrellLF·23y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $23M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#855 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Todd JonesP·36y·L/R

+$1.0M+$1.0M± $7M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.4± 1 exp WARrealized 0.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.24/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.5/yr over 2.8 seasons

Talent

0.39/yr blended

Horizon

1.1 control yr × 0.94 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

CINCIN Dan O'Brien net −$4.0M net -0.4

received +$5.6M+$5.6M ± $29M expected surplus · −$4.0M realized received 2.9 ± 4 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CIN's 2004 odds 1% → 1% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Josh HancockP·26y·R/R

+$4.4M+$4.4M± $20M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 1.7± 2 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

#103 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.3/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.32/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.96 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Anderson MachadoSS·23y·B/R

+$1.4M+$1.4M± $21M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.0/yr over 0.0 season

Talent

0.23/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.