MIN⇄CIN

MINMIN Terry Ryan net +$8.8M net +0.6

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $24M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIN's 2006 odds 65% → 61% (-4.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Brandon RobertsCF·21y·L/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $24M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#212 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

CINCIN Dan O'Brien net −$8.8M net -0.6

received −$2.4M−$2.4M ± $7M expected surplus · −$8.8M realized received 0.3 ± 1 expected · -0.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CIN's 2006 odds 14% → 17% (+2.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Juan CastroSS·34y·R/R

−$2.6M−$2.6M± $7M exp surplusrealized −$8.8M 0.3± 1 exp WARrealized -0.6

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.3/yr over 1.8 season

Talent

0.27/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.69 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.