CIN⇄KCR

CINCIN Dan O'Brien net +$3.2M net +1.0

received +$4.8M+$4.8M ± $19M expected surplus · +$3.2M realized received 1.9 ± 2 expected · 1.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CIN's 2007 odds 5% → 7% (+2.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jeff Keppinger2B·27y·R/R

+$4.4M+$4.4M± $19M exp surplusrealized +$3.2M 1.9± 2 exp WARrealized 1.0

Prior

#114 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.3/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

0.39/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.90 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

KCRKCR Dayton Moore net −$3.2M net -1.0

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $7M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved KCR's 2007 odds 5% → 3% (-1.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Russ Haltiwanger

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $7M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.