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Reds CIN

200772–90 (0.444)
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GM: Dan O'Brien

Overview

Ranks vs the 30 teams in 2007, or a custom range (defaults to every team-season since 1985, when our data starts).

to

Front Office

PoorAverageGreat
Value
Payroll $M
$67M
Surplus $M
-4
Win %
0.444
TAB
-1.2
WAB
-7.3
Roster composition
Roster fWAR
30.5
Dead money %
53%
Depth Players
10.0
Dead WAR
-7.0

Offense

PoorAverageGreat

Pitching & Defense

PoorAverageGreat

Roster

2007 depth chart — stacked by playing time

C

RDavid Ross108
BJavier Valentin73
RChad Moeller⇄30
RRyan Jorgensen4
RRyan Hanigan3

1B

LScott Hatteberg96
RJorge Cantu⇄21
LJoey Votto17
BJavier Valentin1
RJeff Keppinger1

2B

RBrandon Phillips156
RJuan Castro8
RJeff Keppinger3
RJorge Cantu⇄2
RRyan Freel2
BMark Bellhorn1
RPedro Lopez1

3B

REdwin Encarnación137
RRyan Freel19
RJuan Castro17
RJeff Keppinger13
BMark Bellhorn2
RJeff Conine⇄1
RJorge Cantu⇄1

SS

RÁlex González103
RJeff Keppinger47
RJuan Castro16
RPedro Lopez12
RBrandon Phillips1
REnrique Cruz1
RJerry Gil1

LF

LAdam Dunn144
RNorris Hopper34
RJason Ellison⇄15
LJosh Hamilton9
LJoey Votto6
LBuck Coats5
RJeff Keppinger1
RRyan Freel1

CF

LJosh Hamilton71
RRyan Freel59
RNorris Hopper55
LDewayne Wise4
RJason Ellison⇄4
LBuck Coats2

RF

LKen Griffey Jr.133
RJason Ellison⇄18
RNorris Hopper13
LJosh Hamilton10
LBuck Coats5
RJeff Keppinger1

DH

LAdam Dunn3
LKen Griffey Jr.3
BJavier Valentin1
RJeff Conine⇄1
LScott Hatteberg1

Starters

RAaron Harang4.8 WAR
RBronson Arroyo3.4 WAR
RMatt Belisle2.0 WAR
RKyle Lohse⇄2.0 WAR
LBobby Livingston1.1 WAR
RHomer Bailey0.6 WAR
LEric Milton0.4 WAR
RElizardo Ramirez-0.2 WAR
RTom Shearn-0.3 WAR
RKirk Saarloos-0.3 WAR
LPhil Dumatrait-0.6 WAR

Bullpen

★ RDavid Weathers33 sv
RJared Burton11 h
LMike Stanton10 h
LJon Coutlangus9 h
RTodd Coffey6 h
RGary Majewski6 h
RKirk Saarloos4 h
RVictor Santos⇄0 h

Each position shows its top 3 by games (top = starter) — click "+more" for the rest. The letter is bats/throws; ⇄ marks a player traded mid-season. Starters are ranked by WAR, bullpen by holds; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

Key additions (new vs 2006)

PlayerfWAR
Josh Hamilton2.3
Álex González2.2
Jeff Keppinger2.0
Bobby Livingston1.1
Jason Ellison0.7
Homer Bailey0.6

Key subtractions (gone from 2006)

Player2006 fWAR
Rich Aurilia3.0
Austin Kearns1.9
Felipe Lopez1.3
Chris Denorfia0.9
Brandon Claussen0.4
Chris Hammond0.2

Contract Value

WAR translated into tier-adjusted market value, then compared with what the player was paid by Reds. Guaranteed contracts from the 2015-present contract-data period use the known contract period through 2007; everyone else is shown as a 2007 season snapshot.

PlayerPeriodfWARTier Market $MPaid $MSurplus $M$ / WARTierContract
Aaron Harang 2007 +4.8 +84.9 4.2 +80.6 $0.9M 2.19× –
Bronson Arroyo 2007 +3.4 +52.7 4.1 +48.5 $1.2M 1.96× –
Brandon Phillips 2007 +4.4 +42.7 0.4 +42.3 $0.1M 1.20× –
Adam Dunn 2007 +2.9 +37.0 10.5 +26.5 $3.6M 1.60× –
Matt Belisle 2007 +2.0 +24.0 0.4 +23.7 $0.2M 1.49× –
Josh Hamilton 2007 +2.3 +21.9 0.4 +21.6 $0.2M 1.22× –
Kyle Lohse↔ 2007 +2.0 +23.9 2.6 +21.3 $1.3M 1.49× –
Jeff Keppinger 2007 +2.0 +14.6 0.4 +14.3 $0.2M 0.89× –
Álex González 2007 +2.2 +15.6 3.5 +12.1 $1.6M 0.89× –
David Weathers 2007 +1.3 +13.4 2.2 +11.1 $1.8M 1.34× –
Edwin Encarnación 2007 +1.2 +5.6 0.4 +5.2 $0.3M 0.58× –
Scott Hatteberg 2007 +1.4 +6.4 1.5 +4.9 $1.0M 0.56× –
Homer Bailey 2007 +0.6 +4.8 0.4 +4.5 $0.6M 1.02× –
Jason Ellison↔ 2007 +0.7 +4.7 0.1 +4.5 $0.2M 0.83× –
Jared Burton 2007 +0.4 +2.2 0.4 +1.9 $0.9M 0.67× –
Bill Bray 2007 +0.3 +1.4 0.4 +1.0 $1.4M 0.67× –
David Ross 2007 +0.5 +2.0 1.6 +0.4 $3.3M 0.52× –
Jon Coutlangus 2007 +0.1 +0.7 0.4 +0.4 $2.8M 0.67× –
Mike Stanton 2007 +0.4 +1.9 2.0 -0.1 $5.5M 0.67× –
Eddie Guardado 2007 +0.1 +0.3 0.5 -0.2 $8.8M 0.67× –
Jerry Gil 2007 +0.0 +0.0 0.4 -0.4 – 0.61× –
Joey Votto 2007 -0.1 -0.5 0.1 -0.5 – 0.56× –
Javier Valentin 2007 -0.0 -0.2 1.2 -1.4 – 0.52× –
Jeff Conine↔ 2007 +0.0 +0.0 1.6 -1.6 $286.2M 0.58× –
Elizardo Ramirez 2007 -0.2 -1.7 0.4 -2.1 – 1.02× –
Kirk Saarloos 2007 -0.3 -1.8 1.2 -3.0 – 0.67× –
Chad Moeller↔ 2007 -0.6 -2.7 0.6 -3.2 – 0.52× –
Rheal Cormier 2007 -0.2 -1.0 2.2 -3.3 – 0.67× –
Todd Coffey 2007 -0.7 -3.6 0.4 -4.0 – 0.67× –
Ryan Freel 2007 -0.4 -2.4 2.3 -4.7 – 0.83× –
Juan Castro 2007 -1.1 -5.3 0.9 -6.2 – 0.58× –
Eric Milton 2007 +0.4 +3.5 10.3 -6.8 $23.9M 1.02× –
Ken Griffey Jr. 2007 -0.6 -4.0 8.4 -12.4 – 0.83× –
Bobby Livingston 2007 +1.1 +9.0 – – – 1.02× –
Brad Salmon 2007 +0.1 +0.6 – – – 0.67× –
Buck Coats 2007 +0.0 +0.3 – – – 0.83× –
Dewayne Wise 2007 +0.1 +0.5 – – – 0.83× –
Enrique Cruz 2007 -0.1 -0.4 – – – 0.61× –
Gary Majewski 2007 +0.1 +0.5 – – – 0.67× –
Jorge Cantu↔ 2007 -0.0 -0.1 – – – 0.56× –
Marcus McBeth 2007 +0.3 +1.4 – – – 0.67× –
Mark Bellhorn 2007 -0.1 -0.6 – – – 0.58× –
Mike Gosling 2007 -0.3 -1.9 – – – 0.67× –
Norris Hopper 2007 +2.3 +21.9 – – – 1.22× –
Pedro Lopez 2007 -0.5 -2.3 – – – 0.61× –
Phil Dumatrait 2007 -0.6 -4.5 – – – 1.02× –
Ricky Stone 2007 -0.3 -1.8 – – – 0.67× –
Ryan Hanigan 2007 +0.0 +0.2 – – – 0.52× –
Ryan Jorgensen 2007 +0.1 +0.3 – – – 0.52× –
Tom Shearn 2007 -0.3 -2.7 – – – 1.02× –
Victor Santos↔ 2007 -0.4 -2.0 – – – 0.67× –
Total—+30.7+359.466.4+274.9—

Trades

Every graded 2007 deal involving the Reds — best expected value first. Surplus is realized value in $M; 10 total.

2007 · OAK / CIN
OAK · Billy Beane +$0.0M
Julio Mañón
CIN · Dan O'Brien +$0.0M
Dan Denham
Even trade
2007 · CIN / NYM
CIN · Dan O'Brien +$6.4M
Jose Castro, Sean Henry
NYM · Omar Minaya −$6.4M
Jeff Conine
CIN came out ahead by $6.4M
2007 · CIN / KCR
CIN · Dan O'Brien +$3.2M
Jeff Keppinger
KCR · Dayton Moore −$3.2M
Russ Haltiwanger
CIN came out ahead by $3.2M
2007 · TBR / CIN
TBR · Andrew Friedman +$0.8M
Calvin Medlock, Brian Shackelford
CIN · Dan O'Brien −$0.8M
Jorge Cantú, Shaun Cumberland
TBR came out ahead by $0.8M
2007 · TOR / CIN
TOR · JP Ricciardi +$0.0M
Buck Coats
CIN · Dan O'Brien +$0.0M
Justin James
Even trade
2007 · OAK / CIN
OAK · Billy Beane +$4.0M
David Shafer
CIN · Dan O'Brien −$4.0M
Kirk Saarloos
OAK came out ahead by $4.0M
2007 · CIN / CHC
CIN · Dan O'Brien +$1.6M
Buck Coats
CHC · Jim Hendry −$1.6M
Marcos Mateo
CIN came out ahead by $1.6M
2007 · PHI / CIN
PHI · Pat Gillick +$2.4M
Kyle Lohse
CIN · Dan O'Brien −$2.4M
Matt Maloney
PHI came out ahead by $2.4M
2007 · CIN / OAK
CIN · Dan O'Brien +$4.8M
Marcus McBeth, Ben Jukich
OAK · Billy Beane −$4.8M
Chris Denorfia
CIN came out ahead by $4.8M
2007 · TEX / CIN
TEX · Jon Daniels +$256.8M
Josh Hamilton
CIN · Dan O'Brien −$256.8M
Edinson Vólquez, Danny Herrera
TEX came out ahead by $256.8M

Current & Historical Payroll

2007 payroll
$66.6M

What the front office was committed to as of 2007, 2007–2013. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (20)

PlayerAgeSvc2007200820092010201120122013
Adam Dunn276.000$10.5M$9.4MFREE AGENT
Eric Milton319.000$10.3MFREE AGENT
Ken Griffey Jr.3718.000$8.4M$5.9MFREE AGENT
Bronson Arroyo307.000$4.1M$4.6M$10.1M$11.6M$7.7M$12.0M$16.4M
Álex González309.000$3.5MFREE AGENT$3.3M
Kyle Lohse286.000$2.6MFREE AGENT
Ryan Freel316.000$2.3M$3.0MFREE AGENT
David Weathers3716.000$2.2M$3.3M$2.2MFREE AGENT
Rheal Cormier4016.000$2.2MFREE AGENT
Mike Stanton4018.000$2.0MFREE AGENT
Jeff Conine4117.000$1.6MFREE AGENT
Scott Hatteberg3712.000$1.5M$1.9MFREE AGENT
Javier Valentin3110.000$1.2MFREE AGENT
Juan Castro3512.000$925k$863kFREE AGENT
Chad Moeller327.000$568kFREE AGENT
Eddie Guardado3614.000$500kFREE AGENT
Mark Bellhorn3210.000—FREE AGENT
Ricky Stone326.000—FREE AGENT
Victor Santos306.000—FREE AGENT
Dewayne Wise297.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (13)

PlayerAgeSvc2007200820092010201120122013
Aaron Harang295.000$4.2MFREE AGENT
David Ross305.000$1.6MFREE AGENT
Kirk Saarloos285.000$1.2MFREE AGENT
Brandon Phillips265.000$408kFREE AGENT
Matt Belisle274.000$390kARB 3FREE AGENT
Elizardo Ramirez243.000$390kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Keppinger273.000$382kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jerry Gil243.000$380kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Ellison294.000$144kARB 3FREE AGENT
Gary Majewski273.000—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jorge Cantu253.000—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Enrique Cruz254.000—ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Gosling263.000—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (18)

PlayerAgeSvc2007200820092010201120122013
Edwin Encarnación242.000$408kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Todd Coffey262.000$408kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bill Bray241.000$382kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Hamilton260.000$380kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jared Burton260.000$380kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jon Coutlangus260.000$380kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Homer Bailey210.000$380kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joey Votto230.000$56kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tom Shearn29–—
Ryan Jorgensen28–—
Phil Dumatrait250.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pedro Lopez23–—
Norris Hopper281.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brad Salmon27–—
Ryan Hanigan260.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Marcus McBeth26–—
Bobby Livingston24–—
Buck Coats251.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

How each 2007 acquisition stacked onto Reds's playoff-odds curve. The side table is ranked by PPA.

Rosternomics — front-office performance, roster value, and transaction history. Follow @rosternomics on X.
Decision-maker records extend to 1933; resource-controlled WAR and payroll metrics cover 1985–2026. Data sources include FanGraphs, Baseball-Reference, the Chadwick Bureau register, the Lahman Database, prospect rankings from Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, and FanGraphs, and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0).
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