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April 27, 2007

CIN⇄OAK

CIN won this trade +$4.8M surplus CIN won this trade +0.7 WAR
CINCIN Dan O'Brien net +$4.8M net +0.7
received +$3.2M+$3.2M ± $32M expected surplus · +$0.8M realized received 2.4 ± 4 expected · 0.3 realized WAR
Playoff odds: this deal moved CIN's 2007 odds 7% → 7% (+0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗
receives — most valuable first
Ben JukichP·24y·L/L
+$2.3M+$2.3M± $24M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0
Prior
#398 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr
Evidence
no MLB track record — leans on pedigree
Talent
0.21/yr blended
Horizon
6.0 control yrs
Marcus McBethP·26y·R/R
+$1.3M+$1.3M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$0.8M 1.1± 3 exp WARrealized 0.3
Prior
#131 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr
Evidence
no MLB track record — leans on pedigree
Talent
0.21/yr blended
Horizon
5.5 control yrs × 0.94 age decline
OAKOAK Billy Beane net −$4.8M net -0.7
received +$22.4M+$22.4M ± $38M expected surplus · −$4.0M realized received 4.3 ± 5 expected · -0.4 realized WAR
Playoff odds: this deal moved OAK's 2007 odds 17% → 16% (-0.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗
receives — most valuable first
Chris DenorfiaOF·26y·R/R
+$22.7M+$22.7M± $38M exp surplusrealized −$4.0M 4.3± 5 exp WARrealized -0.4
Prior
#555 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr
Evidence
recent form 2.5/yr over 0.4 season
Talent
0.80/yr blended
Horizon
5.5 control yrs × 0.99 age decline

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.

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Decision-maker records extend to 1933; resource-controlled WAR and payroll metrics cover 1985–2026. Data sources include FanGraphs, Baseball-Reference, the Chadwick Bureau register, the Lahman Database, prospect rankings from Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, and FanGraphs, and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0).
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