RRosternomics
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Reds CIN

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GM: Wayne Krivsky

Overview

REBUILD ↘ cooling
cheap & losing · year 2 in this regime · payroll 0.72× league · TAB -7.4
-7.4TAB — talent above budget26th/30
-3.6WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)20th/30
6.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars16th/30
-6.8dead WAR — sub-replacement drag22nd/30
40%dead money %18th/30
0.457win %21st/30
22.7roster fWAR27th/30
-18surplus $M (value vs cost)21st/30
$63Mpayroll $M22nd/30

Roster

CFCorey Patterson 124GJay Bruce 35GRyan Freel 23G
LFChris Dickerson 28GJerry Hairston Jr. 24GJolbert Cabrera 17G
RFJay Bruce 78GJerry Hairston Jr. 12GRyan Freel 5G
SSJeff Keppinger 108GPaul Janish 36GJerry Hairston Jr. 34G
2BBrandon Phillips 140GDanny Richar 10GJerry Hairston Jr. 7G
3BEdwin Encarnación 143GJeff Keppinger 10GAndy Phillips 8G
1BJoey Votto 144GScott Hatteberg 16GJavier Valentin 11G
STARTERSEdinson Volquez 3.2WARBronson Arroyo 2.7WARAaron Harang 1.2WARJohnny Cueto 0.7WARMatt Belisle 0.1WAR
CPaul Bako 96GRyan Hanigan 30GJavier Valentin 17G
DHAdam Dunn 2G
BULLPEN★ Francisco Cordero 34svDavid Weathers 19hJared Burton 11hMike Lincoln 10hBill Bray 9hJeremy Affeldt 5hNick Masset 2hGary Majewski 2h
CPaul Bako 96 · Ryan Hanigan 30 · Javier Valentin 17
1BJoey Votto 144 · Scott Hatteberg 16 · Javier Valentin 11
2BBrandon Phillips 140 · Danny Richar 10 · Jerry Hairston Jr. 7
3BEdwin Encarnación 143 · Jeff Keppinger 10 · Andy Phillips 8
SSJeff Keppinger 108 · Paul Janish 36 · Jerry Hairston Jr. 34
LFChris Dickerson 28 · Jerry Hairston Jr. 24 · Jolbert Cabrera 17
CFCorey Patterson 124 · Jay Bruce 35 · Ryan Freel 23
RFJay Bruce 78 · Jerry Hairston Jr. 12 · Ryan Freel 5
DHAdam Dunn 2
SPEdinson Volquez 3.2 · Bronson Arroyo 2.7 · Aaron Harang 1.2 · Johnny Cueto 0.7 · Matt Belisle 0.1
BP★ Francisco Cordero 34 · David Weathers 19 · Jared Burton 11 · Mike Lincoln 10 · Bill Bray 9 · Jeremy Affeldt 5 · Nick Masset 2 · Gary Majewski 2

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2008 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Joey Votto 24 pre-arb 1513.6 0.4 +7.8
Edinson Volquez 24 arb 333.2 0.4 +6.9
Brandon Phillips 27 FA-elig 1412.7 2.9 +3.3
Bronson Arroyo 31 FA-elig 402.7 4.6 +1.7
Jerry Hairston Jr. 32 – 802.7 – –
David Ross↔ BOS 31 FA-elig 522.4 2.2 +3.2
Edwin Encarnación 25 arb 1461.6 0.5 +3.2
Paul Bako 36 FA-elig 991.6 0.8 +2.8
Chris Dickerson 26 – 311.4 0.4 +2.8
Aaron Harang 30 FA-elig 301.2 6.8 -4.0
Ryan Hanigan 27 – 310.9 – –
Jay Bruce 21 – 1080.8 0.4 +1.5
Francisco Cordero 33 FA-elig 720.7 8.6 -7.0
Adam Dunn↔ ARI 28 FA-elig 1140.7 9.4 -7.8
Johnny Cueto 22 pre-arb 320.7 0.4 +1.1
Javier Valentin 32 – 940.6 – –
Bill Bray 25 – 630.5 – –
Jeremy Affeldt 29 FA-elig 740.4 3.0 -2.0
Jared Burton 27 pre-arb 540.4 0.4 +0.4
Ramon Ramirez 25 – 50.3 – –
Ryan Freel 32 FA-elig 480.1 3.0 -2.7
Matt Belisle 28 arb 60.1 1.2 -0.9
Micah Owings↔ ARI 25 pre-arb 40.1 0.0 +0.2
Josh Roenicke 25 – 50.1 – –
David Weathers 38 FA-elig 720.1 3.3 -3.1
Andy Phillips↔ NYM 31 – 52-0.0 – –
Daniel Herrera 23 – 7-0.0 – –
Jolbert Cabrera 35 – 48-0.0 – –
Wilkin Castillo 24 – 18-0.1 – –
Kent Mercker 40 FA-elig 15-0.1 0.6 -0.7
Mike Lincoln 33 FA-elig 64-0.1 0.6 -0.7
Jon Adkins 30 – 4-0.1 – –
Nick Masset↔ CHW 26 pre-arb 10-0.1 0.1 -0.4
Juan Castro↔ BAL 36 FA-elig 7-0.2 0.1 -0.5
Todd Coffey↔ MIL 27 arb 17-0.2 0.6 -1.0
Daryl Thompson 22 – 4-0.2 – –
Scott Hatteberg 38 FA-elig 34-0.2 1.9 -2.3
Adam Pettyjohn 31 – 3-0.2 – –
Adam Rosales 25 – 18-0.2 – –
Ken Griffey Jr.↔ CHW 38 FA-elig 102-0.3 5.9 -6.5
Gary Majewski 28 – 37-0.3 – –
Danny Richar 25 – 16-0.3 – –
Homer Bailey 22 – 8-0.4 0.4 -1.3
Paul Janish 25 – 38-0.4 – –
Josh Fogg 31 FA-elig 23-0.6 0.4 -1.7
Norris Hopper 29 pre-arb 26-0.6 0.4 -1.7
Jeff Keppinger 28 arb 121-1.1 0.4 -2.8
Corey Patterson 28 FA-elig 135-1.1 3.0 -5.6

Key additions (new vs 2007)

PlayerfWAR
Edinson Volquez3.2
Jerry Hairston Jr.2.7
Paul Bako1.6
Chris Dickerson1.4
Jay Bruce0.8
Francisco Cordero0.7

Key subtractions (gone from 2007)

Player2007 fWAR
Josh Hamilton2.3
Álex González2.2
Kyle Lohse2.0
Bobby Livingston1.1
Jason Ellison0.7
Eric Milton0.4

Current & Historical Payroll

2008 payroll
$62.9M

What the front office was committed to as of 2008, 2008–2014. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (20)

PlayerAgeSvc2008200920102011201220132014
Adam Dunn287.000$9.4MFREE AGENT
Francisco Cordero339.000$8.6M$12.1M$12.1M$12.1MFREE AGENT
Aaron Harang306.000$6.8M$14.0M$12.5MFREE AGENT
Ken Griffey Jr.3819.000$5.9MFREE AGENT
Bronson Arroyo318.000$4.6M$10.1M$11.6M$7.7M$12.0M$16.4MFREE AGENT
David Weathers3817.000$3.3M$2.2MFREE AGENT
Ryan Freel327.000$3.0MFREE AGENT
Jeremy Affeldt296.000$3.0MFREE AGENT
Corey Patterson288.000$3.0MFREE AGENT
Brandon Phillips276.000$2.9M$5.2M$6.9M$11.4M$12.0M$10.0M$11.0M
David Ross316.000$2.2MFREE AGENT
Scott Hatteberg3813.000$1.9MFREE AGENT
Paul Bako3610.000$750kFREE AGENT
Kent Mercker4019.000$600kFREE AGENT
Mike Lincoln339.000$550k$1.5M$2.5MFREE AGENT
Josh Fogg317.000$400kFREE AGENT
Juan Castro3613.000$112kFREE AGENT
Javier Valentin3211.000—FREE AGENT
Jolbert Cabrera3510.000—FREE AGENT
Jerry Hairston Jr.3210.000—$1.3MFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (9)

PlayerAgeSvc2008200920102011201220132014
Matt Belisle285.000$1.2MFREE AGENT
Todd Coffey273.000$593kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Edwin Encarnación253.000$450kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Keppinger284.000$402kARB 3FREE AGENT
Edinson Volquez243.000$392kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gary Majewski284.000—ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jon Adkins305.000—FREE AGENT
Andy Phillips314.000—ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ramon Ramirez253.142—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (19)

PlayerAgeSvc2008200920102011201220132014
Norris Hopper292.000$402kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jared Burton271.000$395kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joey Votto241.000$390kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jay Bruce210.000$390kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Dickerson260.000$390kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Johnny Cueto220.000$390kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Homer Bailey221.000$390kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Masset262.000$94kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Micah Owings251.000$40kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adam Pettyjohn31–—
Bill Bray252.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Daryl Thompson22–—
Wilkin Castillo24–—
Ryan Hanigan271.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Paul Janish250.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Danny Richar25–—
Adam Rosales250.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Roenicke250.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Daniel Herrera230.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Reds 2008; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.