CIN⇄COL

CINCIN Dan O'Brien net +$0.0M net +0.1

received +$4.0M+$4.0M ± $28M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 1.4 ± 4 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CIN's 2005 odds 7% → 7% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Allan SimpsonP·27y·R/R

+$3.8M+$3.8M± $28M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 1.4± 4 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

#253 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.4/yr over 1.0 season

Talent

0.30/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.91 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

COLCOL Daniel O'Dowd net +$0.0M net -0.1

received +$6.4M+$6.4M ± $19M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 1.1 ± 2 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved COL's 2005 odds 1% → 1% (-0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jose AcevedoP·27y·R/R

+$6.6M+$6.6M± $19M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 1.1± 2 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.9/yr over 1.4 season

Talent

0.57/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.