RRosternomics
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EL

Ed Lynch

Born Feb 25, 1956 · Brooklyn, NY · age 70

General manager for the Cubs (1995–2000).

6 seasons with salary-era data across 1 stint. All figures are franchise-level outcomes during the tenure, not solely attributable to one executive.

Overview

Titles0
Pennants0
Playoffs1
Record439–516
Win %0.460
-3.7GM WAR — wins above a replacement GM (org-adjusted, shrunk; per season) ±5.4162nd/195 execs
6.0Depth — 2+ WAR regulars per season (the breadth that drives TAB, not stars)118th/195 execs
-6.2Dead WAR — WAR/yr bled by sub-replacement players (closer to 0 = better)150th/195 execs
31%Dead money — payroll on <0.5-WAR players (lower = better)65th/195 execs
$0MCheap-talent surplus — $/yr of value from cost-controlled (pre-arb/arb) players above their pay; the selection engine, and the stickiest GM skill we track179th/195 execs
$2MDrafted surplus — cheap-talent surplus from his own draftees (the develop-from-the-draft engine)155th/195 execs
$-2MTraded-for surplus — cheap-talent surplus from cost-controlled players he acquired via trade175th/195 execs
$0MInt'l surplus — cheap-talent surplus from his own international signees115th/195 execs
-42.2TAB — talent above budget — roster-construction alpha (talent your budget bought above expectation), tenure total177th/195 execs
-48.0WAB — realized wins (TAB + the non-repeatable luck of converting talent to wins)181st/195 execs
0.88Acquisition Leverage — playoff pts per acquired WAR, graded once in the year each deal's wins arrive (the repeatable decision skill)131st/195 execs
-88Roster surplus $M128th/195 execs

Tenure breakdown

TeamRoleYearsSzns WAB WAB/yr TAB WAR surp HG Trade FA R5 AcqLev W-L% POPenWS Surp $M
▸ Cubs GM 1995–2000 6 -48.0 -8.00 -42.2 -74.0 +75.6 -26.0 -66.2 -1.6 0.88 0.460 1–– -88
Career total (1985+ data) 6 -48.0 -42.2 -74.0 +75.6 -26.0 -66.2 -1.6 0.88 0.460 1– – -88

Roster Construction

How the roster was sourced

by valueby volume

Share of acquired fWAR by channel vs. league average.

Build channels — net fWAR

Acquired minus surrendered / signed minus walked.

Home-grown (draft/intl)+75.6
Trade-26.0
Free agency-66.2
Rule 5 / minor draft-1.6
Sourcing mix: 55% draft · 32% FA · 13% trade · 0% R5

Roster value distribution — career average — depth vs. stars

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR, averaged across Ed Lynch's seasons. Bars = his rosters; the black line = the league-average player at each slot. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge.

Players acquired — 125 players, by realized fWAR for the franchise (scroll for more)

PlayerPosTeam How Year Szns fWAR WAR/yr Lev
Carlos Zambrano P CHC Intl FA 1997 10 +36.4 +3.6 –
Kerry Wood P CHC Draft 1995 11 +24.2 +2.2 –
Jon Lieber P CHC Trade 1999 4 +16.6 +4.2 0.5
Kevin Tapani P CHC Free agency 1996 5 +11.9 +2.4 0.2
Carlos Marmól P CHC Intl FA 1999 6 +7.2 +1.2 –
Brian McRae OF CHC Trade 1995 3 +7.2 +2.4 3.6
Corey Patterson OF CHC Draft 1998 3 +6.7 +2.2 –
Jaime Navarro P CHC Free agency 1995 2 +6.4 +3.2 3.5
José Hernández 3B/SS CHC Trade 1995 5 +5.5 +1.1 1.4
Mark Clark P CHC Trade 1997 2 +4.9 +2.5 0.1
Eric Young 2B CHC Trade 2000 2 +4.9 +2.4 0.7
Scott Servais C CHC Trade 1995 3 +4.5 +1.5 2.2
Henry Rodríguez OF CHC Free agency 1998 3 +4.0 +1.3 2.8
Jason Bere P CHC Free agency 2000 2 +3.8 +1.9 11.7
Ricky Gutiérrez SS CHC Free agency 1999 2 +3.1 +1.6 0.3
Joe Borowski P CHC Free agency 2000 2 +2.9 +1.5 1.5
Luis Gonzalez OF CHC Trade 1995 2 +2.7 +1.3 2.4
Mickey Morandini 2B CHC Trade 1997 1 +2.7 +2.7 10.0
Michael Wuertz P CHC Draft 1997 5 +2.4 +0.5 –
Julián Tavárez P CHC Free agency 2000 1 +2.1 +2.1 8.1
Juan Cruz P CHC Intl FA 1997 3 +1.7 +0.6 –
Jeff Fassero P CHC Free agency 2000 2 +1.7 +0.9 6.5
Leo Gómez 3B CHC Free agency 1996 1 +1.7 +1.7 1.3
Bill Mueller 3B CHC Trade 2000 2 +1.7 +0.8 6.5
Terry Mulholland P CHC Free agency 1996 3 +1.7 +0.6 0.1
Rondell White OF CHC Trade 2000 2 +1.7 +0.8 0.1
Tom Gordon P CHC Free agency 2000 2 +1.5 +0.7 5.7
Bob Patterson P CHC Free agency 1996 3 +1.4 +0.5 0.5
Matt Stairs DH/OF CHC Trade 2000 1 +1.4 +1.4 5.1
Rod Beck P CHC Free agency 1998 1 +1.1 +1.1 2.8
Will Ohman P CHC Draft 1998 2 +1.1 +0.6 –
Todd Van Poppel P CHC Free agency 1999 2 +1.1 +0.6 0.1
Lance Johnson OF CHC Trade 1997 3 +1.0 +0.3 0.0
Roosevelt Brown OF CHC Rule 5 1997 3 +0.8 +0.3 –
Jeff Reed C CHC Free agency 1999 2 +0.8 +0.4 0.1
Andrew Lorraine P CHC Free agency 1998 2 +0.7 +0.3 0.1
Benito Santiago C CHC Free agency 1998 1 +0.7 +0.7 0.1
Hee-Seop Choi 1B CHC Intl FA 1999 1 +0.6 +0.6 –
Dave Magadan 1B/3B CHC Free agency 1996 1 +0.6 +0.6 0.5
Dave Clark OF CHC Free agency 1997 1 +0.5 +0.5 0.1
Willie Greene 3B CHC Free agency 2000 1 +0.5 +0.5 0.1
Dave Hansen 1B/3B CHC Free agency 1997 1 +0.5 +0.5 0.1
Félix Heredia P CHC Trade 1998 3 +0.5 +0.2 1.0
Kent Bottenfield P CHC Free agency 1996 1 +0.4 +0.4 0.5
Bobby Hill 2B/3B CHC Draft 2000 1 +0.4 +0.4 –
Joe Kmak C CHC Trade 1995 1 +0.4 +0.4 0.5
Jeff Blauser SS CHC Free agency 1997 1 +0.3 +0.3 0.1
Courtney Duncan P CHC Draft 1996 2 +0.3 +0.2 –
Daniel Garibay P CHC Trade 2000 1 +0.3 +0.3 –
Scott Bullett OF CHC Trade 1995 1 +0.3 +0.3 0.9
Bryan Hickerson P CHC Trade 1995 1 +0.3 +0.3 0.4
Doug Jones P CHC Trade 1996 1 +0.3 +0.3 0.2
Shane Andrews 3B CHC Free agency 1999 2 +0.2 +0.1 0.1
Mike Mahoney C CHC Trade 2000 2 +0.2 +0.1 –
Mike Pérez P CHC Free agency 1995 2 +0.2 +0.1 0.1
Miguel Cairo 2B CHC Trade 1997 2 +0.2 +0.1 0.0
Mike Campbell P CHC Free agency 1995 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.1
Brian Williams P CHC Free agency 2000 – +0.1 – –
Orlando Merced 1B/OF CHC Trade 1998 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.2
Jamie Arnold P CHC Trade 2000 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.1
Bret Barberie 2B CHC Free agency 1996 – -0.0 – –
Tarrik Brock OF CHC Trade 1999 – -0.0 – –
Jason Dubois OF CHC Draft 2000 – -0.0 – –
Tom Edens P CHC Free agency 1995 – -0.0 – –
Rich Garcés P CHC Free agency 1995 1 -0.0 -0.0 0.2
Joey Nation P CHC Trade 1999 1 +0.0 +0.0 –
Marc Pisciotta P CHC Trade 1996 1 -0.0 -0.0 –
José Reyes C CHC Intl FA 1999 – -0.0 – –
Mel Rojas P CHC Free agency 1996 – -0.0 – –
Scott Sanders P CHC Free agency 1998 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0
Jason Smith 2B/SS CHC Draft 1996 – -0.0 – –
Jerry Spradlin P CHC Free agency 2000 1 -0.0 -0.0 0.0
Ben VanRyn P CHC Free agency 1997 1 -0.0 -0.0 0.0
Tim Worrell P CHC Free agency 2000 1 -0.0 -0.0 0.1
Mark Guthrie P CHC Trade 1999 2 -0.0 -0.0 0.0
Kurt Miller P CHC Trade 1998 1 -0.0 -0.0 0.3
Ismael Valdez P CHC Trade 2000 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0
Mike Walker P CHC Trade 1995 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0
Buck Coats OF CHC Draft 2000 – -0.1 – –
Doug Creek P CHC Free agency 1999 – -0.1 – –
Raúl González OF CHC Trade 2000 – -0.1 – –
Robert Machado C CHC Free agency 2000 1 -0.1 -0.1 0.5
Oswaldo Mairena P CHC Trade 2000 – -0.1 – –
Sandy Martínez C CHC Trade 1997 1 -0.1 -0.1 1.1
Carmen Pignatiello P CHC Draft 2000 – -0.1 – –
Roberto Rivera P CHC Trade 1995 – -0.1 – –
Félix Sánchez P CHC Intl FA 1998 – -0.1 – –
Terry Shumpert 2B CHC Free agency 1996 – -0.1 – –
Damon Buford OF CHC Trade 1999 1 -0.2 -0.2 0.1
Brian Dorsett C CHC Free agency 1996 – -0.2 – –
Félix Fermín SS CHC Free agency 1996 – -0.2 – –
David Kelton OF CHC Draft 1998 – -0.2 – –
Gary Matthews OF CHC Trade 2000 1 -0.2 -0.2 1.1
Brian McNichol P CHC Draft 1995 – -0.2 – –
Matt Mieske OF CHC Free agency 1997 – -0.2 – –
Rodney Myers P CHC Rule 5 1995 1 -0.2 -0.2 –
Chris Nabholz P CHC Free agency 1995 – -0.2 – –
Danny Young P CHC Rule 5 1997 – -0.2 – –
Tyler Houston C/3B CHC Trade 1996 2 -0.2 -0.1 0.5
Francis Beltrán P CHC Intl FA 1996 – -0.3 – –
Scott Chiasson P CHC Rule 5 2000 – -0.3 – –
Ross Gload 1B CHC Trade 2000 – -0.3 – –
Ray King P CHC Trade 1998 – -0.3 – –
Terrell Lowery OF CHC Rule 5 1996 1 -0.3 -0.3 –
Phil Norton P CHC Draft 1996 – -0.3 – –
Todd Wellemeyer P CHC Draft 2000 1 -0.3 -0.3 –
Rick Aguilera P CHC Trade 1999 1 -0.3 -0.3 0.1
Larry Casian P CHC Trade 1996 1 -0.3 -0.3 0.0
Todd Hundley C CHC Free agency 2000 1 -0.4 -0.4 0.3
Jon Leicester P CHC Draft 2000 – -0.4 – –
Matt Karchner P CHC Trade 1998 – -0.5 – –
Steve Smyth P CHC Draft 1999 – -0.5 – –
Todd Pratt C CHC Free agency 1995 – -0.6 – –
Jeff Huson 2B/SS CHC Free agency 2000 – -0.7 – –
Cole Liniak 3B CHC Trade 1999 – -0.7 – –
Todd Haney 2B CHC Trade 1995 1 -0.7 -0.7 0.9
Augie Ojeda 2B/3B/SS CHC Trade 1999 1 -0.8 -0.8 –
Rubén Quevedo P CHC Trade 1999 – -0.8 – –
Manny Alexander 2B/SS CHC Trade 1997 1 -0.8 -0.8 0.0
Howard Johnson 3B CHC Free agency 1995 – -1.2 – –
Chad Meyers 2B/OF CHC Draft 1996 1 -1.2 -1.2 –
Gary Gaetti 3B CHC Free agency 1998 1 -1.3 -1.3 4.0
José Nieves SS CHC Trade 1998 – -1.3 – –
Ramón Tatís P CHC Rule 5 1996 – -1.3 – –
Ronny Cedeño SS CHC Intl FA 1999 3 -1.5 -0.5 –

WAB = wins above what the team's payroll predicted (resource-controlled). WAR surplus = era-neutral value (WAR minus payroll in win-equivalents). Roster surplus $M = dollar value of WAR over cost. Build channels (realized fWAR): HG = home-grown via amateur draft / international signing; Trade = acquired minus surrendered (incl. purchases/waivers); FA = signed minus walked; R5 = Rule-5 / minor-league-draft pickups. Credit follows the acquisition year — home-grown to the regime at the player's draft/signing (not whoever was in the chair when he peaked), trade/FA/R5 to the GM who made the move. Players acquired as prospects before debuting (e.g. Smoltz, Bagwell; Rule-5 picks like Uggla) are counted as trade/R5, not home-grown. All are franchise-level outcomes during the stint, not solely attributable to one executive.

Graphs

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Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.