SDP⇄CHC

SDPSDP Kevin Towers net +$0.8M net +0.1

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $22M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 1.3 ± 3 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Ben VanRynP·26y·L/L

+$2.5M+$2.5M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

#37 overall draft pick → 0.26/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.2/yr over 0.0 season

Talent

0.26/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.95 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

CHCCHC Ed Lynch net −$0.8M net -0.1

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $18M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 0.4 ± 2 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Don WengertP·28y·R/R

−$0.2M−$0.2M± $18M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.4± 2 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.1/yr over 1.9 season

Talent

0.12/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.