RRosternomics
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Cubs CHC

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GM: Ed Lynch

Overview

FORCED-SPEND ↘ cooling
expensive & losing · year 3 in this regime · payroll 1.04× league · TAB -10.9
-10.9TAB — talent above budget27th/30
-17.4WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)30th/30
5.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars20th/30
-7.5dead WAR — sub-replacement drag24th/30
32%dead money %21st/30
0.401win %29th/30
23.8roster fWAR22nd/30
-21surplus $M (value vs cost)21st/30
$56Mpayroll $M14th/30

Roster

CFDamon Buford 140GGary Matthews Jr. 21GCorey Patterson 11G
LFRondell White 92GGary Matthews Jr. 46GBrant Brown 26G
RFSammy Sosa 156GBrant Brown 8GDamon Buford 7G
SSRicky Gutierrez 121GAugie Ojeda 25GJose Nieves 24G
2BEric Young Sr. 150GJeff Huson 17GChad Meyers 8G
3BWillie Greene 90GShane Andrews 58GJose Nieves 39G
1BMark Grace 140GJulio Zuleta 14GBrant Brown 12G
STARTERSJon Lieber 4.8WARKevin Tapani 2.5WARKerry Wood 1.8WARDaniel Garibay 0.3WARKyle Farnsworth -0.4WAR
CJoe Girardi 103GJeff Reed 71GMike Mahoney 4G
BULLPEN★ Rick Aguilera 29svFélix Heredia 12hTim Worrell 12hSteve Rain 8hTodd Van Poppel 7hJerry Spradlin 4hJamie Arnold 0hMatt Karchner 0h
CJoe Girardi 103 · Jeff Reed 71 · Mike Mahoney 4
1BMark Grace 140 · Julio Zuleta 14 · Brant Brown 12
2BEric Young Sr. 150 · Jeff Huson 17 · Chad Meyers 8
3BWillie Greene 90 · Shane Andrews 58 · Jose Nieves 39
SSRicky Gutierrez 121 · Augie Ojeda 25 · Jose Nieves 24
LFRondell White 92 · Gary Matthews Jr. 46 · Brant Brown 26
CFDamon Buford 140 · Gary Matthews Jr. 21 · Corey Patterson 11
RFSammy Sosa 156 · Brant Brown 8 · Damon Buford 7
SPJon Lieber 4.8 · Kevin Tapani 2.5 · Kerry Wood 1.8 · Daniel Garibay 0.3 · Kyle Farnsworth -0.4
BP★ Rick Aguilera 29 · Félix Heredia 12 · Tim Worrell 12 · Steve Rain 8 · Todd Van Poppel 7 · Jerry Spradlin 4 · Jamie Arnold 0 · Matt Karchner 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2000 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Sammy Sosa 31 FA-elig 1565.8 11.0 -2.8
Jon Lieber 30 FA-elig 364.8 3.8 +3.0
Eric Young Sr. 33 FA-elig 1533.6 4.5 +0.5
Mark Grace 36 FA-elig 1433.0 5.3 -1.0
Kevin Tapani 36 FA-elig 302.5 6.0 -2.4
Kerry Wood 23 pre-arb 251.8 0.7 +1.9
Joe Girardi 35 FA-elig 1061.7 2.0 +0.4
Ricky Gutierrez 30 FA-elig 1251.3 2.5 -0.6
Scott Downs↔ WSN 24 – 180.8 0.2 +1.0
Jeff Reed 37 FA-elig 900.8 1.0 +0.1
Tim Worrell↔ BAL 32 FA-elig 540.7 0.6 +0.3
Roosevelt Brown 24 pre-arb 450.6 0.2 +0.6
Willie Greene 28 FA-elig 1050.5 0.4 +0.3
Rondell White↔ WSN 28 FA-elig 190.5 0.8 -0.2
Felix Heredia 25 arb 740.4 0.6 -0.1
Todd Van Poppel 28 – 510.3 – –
Jamie Arnold↔ LAD 26 – 120.3 – –
Augie Ojeda 25 – 280.3 – –
Daniel Garibay 27 – 300.3 – –
Mark Guthrie↔ TBR 34 FA-elig 190.3 0.4 -0.0
Damon Buford 30 FA-elig 1500.3 1.1 -0.7
Shane Andrews 28 arb 660.2 1.0 -0.7
Julio Zuleta 25 – 300.2 – –
Andrew Lorraine↔ CLE 27 FA-elig 80.2 0.1 +0.1
Jerry Spradlin↔ KCR 33 FA-elig 80.1 0.1 +0.0
Mike Mahoney 27 – 40.1 – –
Joey Nation 21 – 20.0 – –
Henry Rodriguez↔ MIA 32 FA-elig 760.0 3.1 -3.1
Ismael Valdez↔ LAD 26 FA-elig 130.0 3.4 -3.4
Will Ohman 22 – 6-0.0 – –
Tarrik Brock 26 pre-arb 13-0.0 0.2 -0.3
Raul Gonzalez 26 – 3-0.1 – –
Cole Liniak 23 pre-arb 3-0.1 0.2 -0.3
Oswaldo Mairena 26 – 2-0.1 – –
Steve Rain 25 – 37-0.1 – –
Gary Matthews Jr. 25 – 80-0.2 – –
Danny Young 28 pre-arb 4-0.2 0.2 -0.5
Phil Norton 24 – 2-0.3 – –
Dave Martinez↔ TBR 35 FA-elig 18-0.3 0.3 -0.7
Chad Meyers 24 – 36-0.3 – –
Matt Karchner 33 arb 13-0.3 0.8 -1.2
Ross Gload 24 – 18-0.3 – –
Kyle Farnsworth 24 pre-arb 46-0.4 0.2 -0.8
Corey Patterson 20 – 11-0.4 – –
Glenallen Hill↔ NYY 35 FA-elig 64-0.5 0.9 -1.6
Jose Nieves 25 pre-arb 82-0.5 0.2 -0.9
Brian Williams↔ CLE 31 FA-elig 22-0.5 0.5 -1.2
Brant Brown↔ MIA 29 arb 54-0.6 0.2 -1.0
Rick Aguilera 38 FA-elig 54-0.7 3.5 -4.5
Jeff Huson 35 FA-elig 70-0.7 0.3 -1.4
Ruben Quevedo 21 – 21-0.8 – –

Key additions (new vs 1999)

PlayerfWAR
Eric Young Sr.3.6
Kerry Wood1.8
Joe Girardi1.7
Ricky Gutierrez1.3
Scott Downs0.8
Tim Worrell0.7

Key subtractions (gone from 1999)

Player1999 fWAR
Steve Trachsel2.2
José Hernández1.7
Lance Johnson0.8
Benito Santiago0.7
Jeff Blauser0.6
Terry Mulholland0.4

Current & Historical Payroll

2000 payroll
$56.4M

What the front office was committed to as of 2000, 2000–2006. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (23)

PlayerAgeSvc2000200120022003200420052006
Sammy Sosa3111.000$11.0M$12.5M$15.0M$16.0M$16.0MFREE AGENT
Kevin Tapani3611.000$6.0M$6.5MFREE AGENT
Mark Grace3612.000$5.3MFREE AGENT
Eric Young Sr.338.000$4.5M$4.5MFREE AGENT
Jon Lieber306.000$3.8M$5.1M$5.8MFREE AGENT
Rick Aguilera3815.000$3.5MFREE AGENT
Ismael Valdez266.000$3.4MFREE AGENT
Henry Rodriguez328.000$3.1MFREE AGENT
Ricky Gutierrez307.000$2.5M$3.4MFREE AGENT
Joe Girardi3511.000$2.0M$2.0M$1.5MFREE AGENT
Damon Buford307.000$1.1M$1.1MFREE AGENT
Jeff Reed3716.000$1.0MFREE AGENT
Glenallen Hill3511.000$923kFREE AGENT
Rondell White287.000$809k$4.0MFREE AGENT
Tim Worrell327.000$641kFREE AGENT
Brian Williams319.000$455kFREE AGENT
Mark Guthrie3411.000$400kFREE AGENT$1.6M
Willie Greene288.000$395kFREE AGENT
Jeff Huson3512.000$300kFREE AGENT
Dave Martinez3514.000$273kFREE AGENT
Jerry Spradlin337.000$133kFREE AGENT
Andrew Lorraine276.000$109kFREE AGENT
Todd Van Poppel289.000—$850kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (4)

PlayerAgeSvc2000200120022003200420052006
Shane Andrews285.000$1.0MFREE AGENT
Matt Karchner335.000$776kFREE AGENT
Felix Heredia254.000$625kARB 3FREE AGENT
Brant Brown294.000$179kARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (24)

PlayerAgeSvc2000200120022003200420052006
Kerry Wood232.000$690kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Farnsworth241.000$235kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jose Nieves252.000$218kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Roosevelt Brown241.000$210kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cole Liniak231.000$205kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Danny Young280.000$200kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tarrik Brock260.000$200kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Downs240.000$189kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chad Meyers241.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Phil Norton240.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Daniel Garibay27–—
Mike Mahoney27–—
Jamie Arnold26–—
Gary Matthews Jr.251.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steve Rain25–—
Ruben Quevedo210.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Julio Zuleta250.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Raul Gonzalez26–—
Corey Patterson200.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Augie Ojeda250.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ross Gload240.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Oswaldo Mairena26–—
Joey Nation21–—
Will Ohman220.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Cubs 2000; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.