LAD⇄CHC

LADLAD Fred Claire net +$2.4M net +0.4

received +$27.2M+$27.2M ± $30M expected surplus · +$2.4M realized received 4.1 ± 4 expected · 0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved LAD's 1995 odds 34% → 36% (+2.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Willie BanksP·26y·R/R

+$27.0M+$27.0M± $30M exp surplusrealized +$2.4M 4.1± 4 exp WARrealized 0.4

Prior

#3 overall draft pick → 0.66/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.9/yr over 1.7 season

Talent

1.36/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

CHCCHC Ed Lynch net −$2.4M net -0.4

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $30M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHC's 1995 odds 14% → 13% (-1.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Dax WinslettP·23y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $30M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#74 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.