CHC⇄CIN

CHCCHC Ed Lynch net +$0.0M net +0.0

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $24M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.8 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Keith KessingerSS·28y·B/R

+$0.5M+$0.5M± $24M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.8± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#918 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.9/yr over 0.0 season

Talent

0.24/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.72 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

CINCIN Jim Bowden net +$0.0M net +0.0

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $10M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Greg Hillman

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $10M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.