CHC⇄MIA

CHCCHC Ed Lynch net −$1.6M net +0.5

received +$6.4M+$6.4M ± $39M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 2.6 ± 5 expected · 0.9 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHC's 1998 odds 19% → 24% (+4.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Félix HerediaP·23y·L/L

+$3.9M+$3.9M± $30M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 1.3± 4 exp WARrealized 0.9

Prior

Composite #43.0 pedigree (Baseball America #43 (1997)) — fell off 1 list since, regressed → 0.30/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.3/yr over 1.5 season

Talent

0.32/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Steve HoffP·20y·L/L

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $26M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#397 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

MIAMIA Dave Dombrowski net +$1.6M net -0.5

received +$71.2M+$71.2M ± $72M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 14.6 ± 9 expected · 0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIA's 1998 odds 0% → 0% (-0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Kevin Orie3B·25y·R/R

+$55.8M+$55.8M± $55M exp surplusrealized +$4.0M 9.8± 7 exp WARrealized 1.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.29/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.0/yr over 0.8 season

Talent

1.95/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Todd NoelP·19y·R/R

+$13.4M+$13.4M± $39M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 3.6± 5 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#17 overall draft pick → 0.60/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.60/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Justin SpeierP·24y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $24M exp surplusrealized −$4.8M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized -0.8

Prior

#1451 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.