ATL⇄CHC

ATLATL John Schuerholz net −$5.6M net +3.7

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $24M expected surplus · −$11.2M realized received 3.3 ± 3 expected · 3.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ATL's 1999 odds 88% → 91% (+3.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

José Hernández3B/SS·29y·R/R

+$5.3M+$5.3M± $20M exp surplusrealized −$7.2M 2.0± 2 exp WARrealized 0.2

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.4/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

1.00/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Terry MulhollandP·36y·R/L

−$3.0M−$3.0M± $13M exp surplusrealized −$4.0M 1.3± 2 exp WARrealized 2.8

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.6/yr over 2.8 seasons

Talent

1.21/yr blended

Horizon

1.1 control yr × 0.98 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

CHCCHC Ed Lynch net +$5.6M net -3.7

received +$5.6M+$5.6M ± $40M expected surplus · −$5.6M realized received 3.6 ± 5 expected · -0.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHC's 1999 odds 1% → 1% (-0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Micah BowieP·24y·L/L

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $23M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

#236 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Rubén QuevedoP·20y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $23M exp surplusrealized −$4.8M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized -0.8

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Joey NationP·20y·L/L

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $23M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#80 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.