CHC⇄ANA

CHCCHC Ed Lynch net +$0.0M net +0.0

received −$2.4M−$2.4M ± $29M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.2 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Keith Luuloa2B/SS·25y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#915 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Brett HinchliffeP·25y·R/R

−$4.5M−$4.5M± $19M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#446 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -2.3/yr over 0.4 season

Talent

-0.39/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

ANAANA Bill Stoneman net +$0.0M net +0.0

received −$3.2M−$3.2M ± $20M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.4 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Brett KingSS·27y·R/R

+$0.7M+$0.7M± $18M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.0± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#72 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs × 0.76 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Mike HeathcottP·31y·R/R

−$1.4M−$1.4M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.3± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#358 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.1/yr over 0.0 season

Talent

0.24/yr blended

Horizon

3.9 control yrs × 0.35 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Chris HatcherOF·31y·R/R

−$2.4M−$2.4M± $5M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.1± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#88 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -3.4/yr over 0.0 season

Talent

0.11/yr blended

Horizon

3.9 control yrs × 0.26 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.