MIL⇄CHC

MILMIL Dean Taylor net +$6.4M net +1.6

received −$4.8M−$4.8M ± $19M expected surplus · +$6.4M realized received 0.0 ± 2 expected · 1.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIL's 2000 odds 1% → 1% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Ray KingP·26y·L/L

−$4.5M−$4.5M± $19M exp surplusrealized +$6.4M 0.0± 2 exp WARrealized 1.6

Prior

#223 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.9/yr over 0.3 season

Talent

-0.04/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

CHCCHC Ed Lynch net −$6.4M net -1.6

received +$3.2M+$3.2M ± $11M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.9 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHC's 2000 odds 2% → 2% (-0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Doug JohnsP·32y·R/L

+$3.1M+$3.1M± $11M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.9± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.7/yr over 2.0 seasons

Talent

0.53/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs × 0.84 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.