CHC⇄WSN

CHCCHC Ed Lynch net +$0.0M net +0.0

received +$4.8M+$3.2M ± $14M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.2 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Gil HerediaP·31y·R/R

+$4.4M+$3.3M± $14M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.2/yr over 2.4 seasons

Talent

0.85/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.94 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

WSNWSN Jim Beattie net +$0.0M net +0.0

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $29M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.5 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Saul BustosSS·25y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $28M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#834 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Dave Jefferson

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $5M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.