CHW⇄CHC

CHWCHW Ron Schueler net +$92.0M net +18.3

received +$15.2M+$15.2M ± $36M expected surplus · +$80.0M realized received 4.0 ± 4 expected · 17.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHW's 1998 odds 4% → 5% (+0.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jon GarlandP·18y·R/R

+$15.0M+$15.0M± $36M exp surplusrealized +$80.0M 4.0± 4 exp WARrealized 17.2

Prior

#10 overall draft pick → 0.73/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.73/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

CHCCHC Ed Lynch net −$92.0M net -18.3

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $8M expected surplus · −$12.0M realized received 0.1 ± 1 expected · -1.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHC's 1998 odds 27% → 24% (-2.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Matt KarchnerP·31y·R/R

−$1.7M−$1.7M± $8M exp surplusrealized −$12.0M 0.1± 1 exp WARrealized -1.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.0/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

0.07/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs × 0.33 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.