CHC⇄CIN

CHCCHC Ed Lynch net +$0.8M net +0.0

received +$5.6M+$5.6M ± $25M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 2.0 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Curt LyonsP·22y·R/R

+$5.8M+$5.8M± $25M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 2.0± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#157 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.2/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.37/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

CINCIN Jim Bowden net −$0.8M net +0.0

received +$8.0M+$8.0M ± $31M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 1.8 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Ozzie TimmonsOF·26y·R/R

+$7.4M+$7.4M± $31M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 1.6± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.7/yr over 0.8 season

Talent

0.41/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Jay Peterson

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $5M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.