RRosternomics
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Cubs CHC

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GM: Ed Lynch

Overview

FORCED-SPEND ↘ cooling
expensive & losing · year 2 in this regime · payroll 1.27× league · TAB -17.4
-17.4TAB — talent above budget29th/30
-18.1WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)30th/30
6.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars17th/30
-9.7dead WAR — sub-replacement drag27th/30
32%dead money %17th/30
0.414win %27th/30
19.8roster fWAR27th/30
-34surplus $M (value vs cost)29th/30
$62Mpayroll $M10th/30

Roster

CFLance Johnson 91GSammy Sosa 25GJosé Hernández 14G
LFHenry Rodriguez 122GGlenallen Hill 37GCurtis Goodwin 36G
RFSammy Sosa 146GGlenallen Hill 26GBo Porter 3G
SSJose Nieves 52GManny Alexander 30GJeff Blauser 22G
2BMickey Morandini 132GChad Meyers 32GJeff Blauser 25G
3BShane Andrews 101GGary Gaetti 81GManny Alexander 21G
1BMark Grace 160GGary Gaetti 8GTyler Houston 2G
STARTERSJon Lieber 4.4WARKevin Tapani 2.3WARSteve Trachsel 2.2WARAndrew Lorraine 0.7WARMicah Bowie 0.1WAR
CBenito Santiago 107GJeff Reed 85GSandy Martínez 12G
DHGlenallen Hill 4GHenry Rodriguez 2G
BULLPEN★ Rick Aguilera 14svMark Guthrie 14hFélix Heredia 12hBobby Ayala 10hRodney Myers 8hDan Serafini 5hTerry Adams 3hMatt Karchner 2h
CBenito Santiago 107 · Jeff Reed 85 · Sandy Martínez 12
1BMark Grace 160 · Gary Gaetti 8 · Tyler Houston 2
2BMickey Morandini 132 · Chad Meyers 32 · Jeff Blauser 25
3BShane Andrews 101 · Gary Gaetti 81 · Manny Alexander 21
SSJose Nieves 52 · Manny Alexander 30 · Jeff Blauser 22
LFHenry Rodriguez 122 · Glenallen Hill 37 · Curtis Goodwin 36
CFLance Johnson 91 · Sammy Sosa 25 · José Hernández 14
RFSammy Sosa 146 · Glenallen Hill 26 · Bo Porter 3
DHGlenallen Hill 4 · Henry Rodriguez 2
SPJon Lieber 4.4 · Kevin Tapani 2.3 · Steve Trachsel 2.2 · Andrew Lorraine 0.7 · Micah Bowie 0.1
BP★ Rick Aguilera 14 · Mark Guthrie 14 · Félix Heredia 12 · Bobby Ayala 10 · Rodney Myers 8 · Dan Serafini 5 · Terry Adams 3 · Matt Karchner 2

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

1999 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Sammy Sosa 30 FA-elig 1625.3 9.0 -2.3
Jon Lieber 29 arb 314.4 2.1 +3.4
Mark Grace 35 FA-elig 1613.3 4.1 +0.1
Henry Rodriguez 31 FA-elig 1303.0 3.7 +0.1
Kevin Tapani 35 FA-elig 232.3 3.5 -0.6
Steve Trachsel 28 FA-elig 342.2 5.2 -2.5
José Hernández↔ ATL 29 FA-elig 991.7 1.6 +0.5
Glenallen Hill 34 FA-elig 991.3 1.1 +0.5
Lance Johnson 35 FA-elig 950.8 5.1 -4.1
Jeff Reed↔ COL 36 FA-elig 570.7 0.7 +0.2
Benito Santiago 34 FA-elig 1090.7 1.7 -0.8
Andrew Lorraine 26 arb 120.7 0.2 +0.6
Jeff Blauser 33 FA-elig 1040.6 4.2 -3.4
Shane Andrews↔ WSN 27 arb 190.5 0.2 +0.4
Terry Mulholland↔ ATL 36 FA-elig 260.4 1.8 -1.3
Rick Aguilera↔ MIN 37 FA-elig 440.4 3.1 -2.6
Felix Heredia 24 arb 690.4 0.3 +0.2
Terry Adams 26 arb 520.3 0.7 -0.3
Mark Guthrie↔ BOS 33 FA-elig 110.2 0.3 -0.1
Micah Bowie↔ ATL 24 pre-arb 110.1 0.2 +0.0
Steve Rain 24 – 160.1 – –
Scott Sanders 30 FA-elig 670.0 0.8 -0.8
Richard Barker 26 – 50.0 – –
Rodney Myers 30 arb 460.0 0.2 -0.2
Manny Alexander 28 FA-elig 90-0.0 0.5 -0.5
José Molina 24 pre-arb 10-0.0 0.2 -0.2
Robin Jennings 27 arb 5-0.1 0.2 -0.3
Doug Creek 30 – 3-0.1 – –
Kurt Miller 26 arb 4-0.1 0.2 -0.4
Brad Woodall 30 arb 6-0.2 0.2 -0.4
Bobby Ayala↔ WSN 29 – 13-0.2 – –
Matt Karchner 32 arb 16-0.2 0.8 -1.0
Brian McNichol 25 – 4-0.2 – –
Curtis Goodwin↔ TOR 26 arb 89-0.3 0.3 -0.6
Rod Beck↔ BOS 30 FA-elig 31-0.3 4.0 -4.3
Bo Porter 26 – 24-0.3 – –
Ray King 25 – 10-0.3 – –
Roosevelt Brown 23 – 33-0.4 – –
Sandy Martinez 28 arb 17-0.5 0.2 -0.8
Dan Serafini 25 arb 42-0.5 0.2 -0.8
Tyler Houston↔ CLE 28 arb 100-0.5 0.6 -1.3
Kyle Farnsworth 23 pre-arb 27-0.5 0.2 -0.9
Cole Liniak 22 – 12-0.7 – –
Jose Nieves 24 pre-arb 54-0.7 0.2 -1.1
Chad Meyers 23 pre-arb 43-1.0 0.2 -1.4
Gary Gaetti 40 FA-elig 113-1.3 2.0 -3.6
Mickey Morandini 33 FA-elig 144-1.3 2.0 -3.6

Key additions (new vs 1998)

PlayerfWAR
Jon Lieber4.4
Jeff Reed0.7
Benito Santiago0.7
Andrew Lorraine0.7
Shane Andrews0.5
Rick Aguilera0.4

Key subtractions (gone from 1998)

Player1998 fWAR
Kerry Wood4.4
Mark Clark3.6
Brant Brown1.8
Geremi Gonzalez1.1
Jason Maxwell0.1
Orlando Merced0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

1999 payroll
$62.0M

What the front office was committed to as of 1999, 1999–2005. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (20)

PlayerAgeSvc1999200020012002200320042005
Sammy Sosa3010.000$9.0M$11.0M$12.5M$15.0M$16.0M$16.0MFREE AGENT
Steve Trachsel286.000$5.2MFREE AGENT
Lance Johnson3512.000$5.1MFREE AGENT
Jeff Blauser3312.000$4.2MFREE AGENT
Mark Grace3511.000$4.1M$5.3MFREE AGENT
Rod Beck308.000$4.0MFREE AGENT
Henry Rodriguez317.000$3.7M$3.1MFREE AGENT
Kevin Tapani3510.000$3.5M$6.0M$6.5MFREE AGENT
Rick Aguilera3714.000$3.1M$3.5MFREE AGENT
Mickey Morandini339.000$2.0MFREE AGENT
Gary Gaetti4018.000$2.0MFREE AGENT
Terry Mulholland3613.000$1.8MFREE AGENT
Benito Santiago3413.000$1.7MFREE AGENT
José Hernández298.000$1.6MFREE AGENT$460k
Glenallen Hill3410.000$1.1M$923kFREE AGENT
Scott Sanders306.000$825kFREE AGENT
Jeff Reed3615.000$719k$1.0MFREE AGENT
Manny Alexander287.000$475kFREE AGENT
Mark Guthrie3310.000$309k$716kFREE AGENT$1.6M
Bobby Ayala297.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (15)

PlayerAgeSvc1999200020012002200320042005
Jon Lieber295.000$2.1MFREE AGENT
Matt Karchner324.000$776kARB 3FREE AGENT
Terry Adams264.000$736kARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Houston283.000$633kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Curtis Goodwin264.000$301kARB 3FREE AGENT
Felix Heredia243.000$275kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrew Lorraine265.000$220kFREE AGENT
Sandy Martinez284.000$220kARB 3FREE AGENT
Rodney Myers303.000$205kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kurt Miller265.000$205kFREE AGENT
Shane Andrews274.000$203kARB 3FREE AGENT
Robin Jennings273.000$202kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dan Serafini253.000$200kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brad Woodall305.000$200kFREE AGENT
Doug Creek304.000—ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (12)

PlayerAgeSvc1999200020012002200320042005
Jose Nieves241.000$202kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Farnsworth230.000$200kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chad Meyers230.000$200kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
José Molina240.000$200kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Micah Bowie240.000$157kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Richard Barker26–—
Roosevelt Brown230.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ray King250.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian McNichol25–—
Cole Liniak220.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bo Porter260.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steve Rain24–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Cubs 1999; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.