CHC⇄SDP

CHCCHC Ed Lynch net +$1.6M net +0.3

received +$13.6M+$13.6M ± $21M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 2.8 ± 3 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHC's 2000 odds 2% → 2% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Gary MatthewsOF·25y·B/R

+$13.7M+$13.7M± $21M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 2.8± 3 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

#366 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.8/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

0.50/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

SDPSDP Kevin Towers net −$1.6M net -0.3

received −$0.8M−$0.8M ± $6M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 0.1 ± 1 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 2000 odds 2% → 2% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Rodney MyersP·31y·R/R

−$1.0M−$1.0M± $6M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 0.1± 1 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.1/yr over 1.6 season

Talent

0.06/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs × 0.50 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.