Rosternomics
BW

Bob Watson

Apr 10, 1946 (Los Angeles, CA) – May 14, 2020 (Houston, TX) · died at 74

Became the first Black general manager to win a World Series, building the 1996 champion New York Yankees after running the Houston Astros.

Across the full 5-season sample, the measured profile stands out most for avoidance of dead payroll (95th percentile), championship leverage per acquired WAR (95th percentile), and payroll-adjusted winning (92nd percentile). The clearest contrast is net WAR per trade (11th percentile): the realized net WAR return per trade has ranked below most peers.

5 seasons with salary-era data across 2 stints. All figures are franchise-level outcomes during the tenure, not solely attributable to one executive.

★ 2 titles · 2 pennants · 3 playoff appearances · 444–301 (0.596)

Percentile Rankings

vs. execs with toyrs exp.
PoorAverageGreat
Trade Decision Quality
Roster Construction
Depth
8.4
Dead WAR
-3.3
Dead money %
21%
PoorAverageGreat
Talent Creation
Cheap-talent surplus
$10M
Drafted surplus
$6M
Traded-for surplus
$1M
Int'l surplus
$3M
Results & Efficiency
GM WAR
+5.1
TAB
+49.3
WAB
+50.0
$ / WAR
$1.0M
Net WAR/trade
-1.49

Overview

TeamRoleYear Pay
$M
Rel
Pay
Surp
$M
Surp
WAR
Dead
%
Cheap
$M
Draft
$M
Trd
$M
Int'l
$M
$ /
WAR
WAR Depth Dead
WAR
HG Trade Net/
Trd
FA R5 RFA PPA CPA WAB TAB W-L% POPenWS
Astros GM 1994 66–49 $33 103 +8 +7.1 27% +14 +5 +7 +1 $0.9M 35.5 6.0 -2.4 +8.9 -10.9 -2.72 -2.1 +0.0 2.90 1.15 +7.6 +15.4 0.574
Astros GM 1995 76–68 $33 98 +3 +3.6 22% +8 +6 +0 +2 $0.8M 37.1 6.0 -4.2 +0.5 +3.7 +0.61 -0.2 +0.0 +0.32 4.46 0.32 +3.4 +7.7 0.528
Yankees GM 1996 92–70 $50 151 -15 -17.8 23% +5 +1 -1 +5 $1.1M 41.6 11.0 -5.3 +3.3 -3.4 -0.67 +8.0 +0.0 -0.79 4.52 0.33 +4.8 +2.4 0.568
Yankees GM 1997 96–66 $63 160 -15 -15.1 16% +11 +11 -0 +3 $1.3M 46.3 7.0 -2.9 +3.4 -7.0 -1.17 -10.5 +0.8 -0.95 6.60 0.57 +8.0 +6.4 0.593
Yankees GM 1998 114–48 $66 159 -4 -4.0 18% +13 +10 -0 +5 $1.1M 57.2 12.0 -1.7 +13.4 -18.3 -6.10 +10.7 +0.0 +0.24 2.00 1.44 +26.2 +17.4 0.704
Career total (1985+ data) $244 134 -23 -26.3 21% +10 +6 +1 +3 $1.0M 217.7 8.4 -3.3 +29.4 -35.9 -1.49 +5.8 +0.8 +0.06 4.25 0.63 +50.0 +49.3 0.596 32 2

Roster Construction

How the roster was sourced

Share of acquired fWAR by channel vs. league average.

Build channels — net fWAR

Acquired minus surrendered / signed minus walked.

Home-grown (draft/intl)+29.4
Trade-35.9
Free agency+5.8
Rule 5 / minor draft+0.8
Sourcing mix: 30% draft · 45% FA · 25% trade · 0% R5

Trades

Trades made — 36 deals credited to Bob Watson, best expected value first; surplus is realized value in $M

1997 · OAK / NYY
OAK · Sandy Alderson +$40.8M
Kenny Rogers
NYY · Bob Watson −$40.8M
Scott Brosius
OAK came out ahead by $40.8M
1994 · HOU / NYM
HOU · Bob Watson +$36.8M
Andy Beckerman, Juan Castillo
NYM · Joe McIlvaine −$36.8M
Pete Harnisch
HOU came out ahead by $36.8M
1994 · SDP / HOU
SDP · Randy Smith +$29.6M
Ken Caminiti, Andújar Cedeño, Steve Finley, Roberto Petagine, Brian Williams, Sean Fesh
HOU · Bob Watson −$29.6M
Derek Bell, Doug Brocail, Ricky Gutiérrez, Pedro Martínez, Phil Plantier, Craig Shipley
SDP came out ahead by $29.6M
1997 · NYY / SFG
NYY · Bob Watson +$12.0M
Alberto Castillo, Chris Singleton
SFG · Brian Sabean −$12.0M
Charlie Hayes
NYY came out ahead by $12.0M
1995 · HOU / MIL
HOU · Bob Watson +$12.0M
Derrick May
MIL · Sal Bando −$12.0M
Tom Nevers
HOU came out ahead by $12.0M
1997 · BOS / NYY
BOS · Dan Duquette +$8.0M
Tony Armas, Jim Mecir
NYY · Bob Watson −$8.0M
Mike Stanley, Randy Brown
BOS came out ahead by $8.0M
1996 · ANA / NYY
ANA · Bill Bavasi +$4.8M
Jim Leyritz
NYY · Bob Watson −$4.8M
Jeremy Blevins, Ryan Kane
ANA came out ahead by $4.8M
1995 · HOU / CLE
HOU · Bob Watson +$0.8M
Matt Williams
CLE · John Hart −$0.8M
Eddie Tucker
HOU came out ahead by $0.8M
1998 · ARI / NYY
ARI · Joe Garagiola +$4.0M
Andy Fox
NYY · Bob Watson −$4.0M
Todd Erdos, Marty Janzen
ARI came out ahead by $4.0M
1994 · LAD / HOU
LAD · Fred Claire +$0.0M
Al Osuna
HOU · Bob Watson +$0.0M
Jimmy Daspit
Even trade
1996 · NYY / ANA
NYY · Bob Watson +$0.8M
Mike Aldrete
ANA · Bill Bavasi −$0.8M
Rich Monteleone
NYY came out ahead by $0.8M
1997 · CHC / NYY
CHC · Ed Lynch +$4.8M
Frisco Parotte
NYY · Bob Watson −$4.8M
Rey Sánchez
CHC came out ahead by $4.8M
1995 · TEX / HOU
TEX · Douglas Melvin +$0.0M
Domingo Jean
HOU · Bob Watson +$0.0M
Roger Luce
Even trade
1997 · NYY / CLE
NYY · Bob Watson +$10.4M
Chad Curtis
CLE · John Hart −$10.4M
David Weathers
NYY came out ahead by $10.4M
1996 · MIA / NYY
MIA · Dave Dombrowski +$0.8M
Mark Hutton
NYY · Bob Watson −$0.8M
David Weathers
MIA came out ahead by $0.8M
1994 · PHI / HOU
PHI · Lee Thomas +$7.2M
Tom Edens
HOU · Bob Watson −$7.2M
Milt Thompson
PHI came out ahead by $7.2M
1996 · PIT / NYY
PIT · Ted Simmons +$8.0M
Chris Corn
NYY · Bob Watson −$8.0M
Charlie Hayes
PIT came out ahead by $8.0M
1994 · CIN / HOU
CIN · Jim Bowden +$4.8M
Ed Taubensee
HOU · Bob Watson −$4.8M
Ross Powell, Marty Lister
CIN came out ahead by $4.8M
1995 · HOU / CLE
HOU · Bob Watson +$8.0M
Tony Mitchell, Mitch Meluskey
CLE · John Hart −$8.0M
Buck McNabb, Jim Lewis
HOU came out ahead by $8.0M
1997 · NYY / TOR
NYY · Bob Watson +$5.6M
Angel Ramirez
TOR · Gord Ash −$5.6M
Mariano Duncan
NYY came out ahead by $5.6M
1996 · CLE / NYY
CLE · John Hart +$0.0M
Tom Wilson
NYY · Bob Watson +$0.0M
Ryan Martindale, Marc Marini
Even trade
1995 · HOU / WSN
HOU · Bob Watson +$0.8M
Sean Berry
WSN · Kevin Malone −$0.8M
Dave Veres, Raúl Chávez
HOU came out ahead by $0.8M
1998 · CHW / NYY
CHW · Ron Schueler +$68.8M
Chris Singleton
NYY · Bob Watson −$68.8M
Rich Pratt
CHW came out ahead by $68.8M
1995 · KCR / HOU
KCR · Herk Robinson +$2.4M
Rick Huisman
HOU · Bob Watson −$2.4M
Pat Borders
KCR came out ahead by $2.4M
1995 · SDP / HOU
SDP · Randy Smith +$0.0M
Pedro Martínez
HOU · Bob Watson +$0.0M
Ray Holbert
Even trade
1998 · MIN / NYY
MIN · Terry Ryan +$2.4M
Allen Butler
NYY · Bob Watson −$2.4M
Dan Naulty
MIN came out ahead by $2.4M
1996 · NYY / LAD
NYY · Bob Watson +$2.4M
Billy Brewer
LAD · Fred Claire −$2.4M
Mike Judd
NYY came out ahead by $2.4M
1998 · ARI / NYY
ARI · Joe Garagiola +$0.0M
Willie Banks
NYY · Bob Watson +$0.0M
Scott Brow, Joe Lisio
Even trade
1995 · HOU / SDP
HOU · Bob Watson +$5.6M
Rich Loiselle, Jeff Tabaka
SDP · Randy Smith −$5.6M
Phil Plantier
HOU came out ahead by $5.6M
1998 · SDP / NYY
SDP · Kevin Towers +$0.8M
Shea Morenz, Ray Ricken
NYY · Bob Watson −$0.8M
Jim Bruske, Brad Kaufman
SDP came out ahead by $0.8M
1995 · CHC / HOU
CHC · Ed Lynch +$61.6M
Scott Servais, Luis Gonzalez
HOU · Bob Watson −$61.6M
Rick Wilkins
CHC came out ahead by $61.6M
1998 · MIN / NYY
MIN · Terry Ryan +$159.2M
Brian Buchanan, Cristian Guzmán, Eric Milton, Danny Mota
NYY · Bob Watson −$159.2M
Chuck Knoblauch
MIN came out ahead by $159.2M
1996 · MIL / NYY
MIL · Sal Bando +$8.8M
Bob Wickman, Gerald Williams
NYY · Bob Watson −$8.8M
Pat Listach, Graeme Lloyd, Ricky Bones
MIL came out ahead by $8.8M
1997 · SDP / NYY
SDP · Kevin Towers +$31.2M
Rafael Medina, Rubén Rivera
NYY · Bob Watson −$31.2M
Homer Bush, Gordie Amerson, Hideki Irabu, Vernon Maxwell
SDP came out ahead by $31.2M
1996 · DET / NYY
DET · Randy Smith +$44.8M
Rubén Sierra, Matt Drews#12
NYY · Bob Watson −$44.8M
Cecil Fielder
DET came out ahead by $44.8M
1995 · DET / HOU
DET · Joe Klein +$16.0M
Phil Nevin
HOU · Bob Watson −$16.0M
Mike Henneman
DET came out ahead by $16.0M

Players acquired — 79 players, by realized fWAR for the franchise (scroll for more)

PlayerPosTeam How Year Szns fWAR WAR/yr RFA PPA CPA
Mike Hampton P HOU Trade 1995 6 +19.2 +3.2 11.9% 0.85%
David Wells P NYY Free agency 1996 4 +17.0 +4.2 29.1% 2.43%
Tino Martinez 1B NYY Trade 1996 7 +16.0 +2.3 -2.51 10.9% 0.78%
Orlando Hernández P NYY Intl FA 1998 6 +13.9 +2.3
Derek Bell OF HOU Trade 1994 4 +12.2 +3.0 8.9% 0.64%
Scott Brosius 3B NYY Free agency 1998 4 +8.7 +2.2 9.7% 7.15%
Mike Stanton P NYY Free agency 1996 7 +7.5 +1.1 8.9% 0.81%
Chuck Knoblauch 2B NYY Trade 1998 4 +7.0 +1.8 -7.66 5.5% 3.94%
Scott Elarton P HOU Draft 1994 3 +5.2 +1.7
Jeff Nelson P NYY Trade 1996 6 +4.6 +0.8 -2.51 5.8% 0.43%
Chad Curtis OF NYY Trade 1997 3 +3.7 +1.2 +0.00 6.2% 0.57%
John Cangelosi OF HOU Free agency 1995 2 +3.5 +1.8 9.8% 0.70%
Hideki Irabu P NYY Trade 1997 2 +3.2 +1.6 -6.84
Nick Johnson 1B NYY Draft 1996 3 +2.9 +1.0
Kenny Rogers P NYY Trade 1996 2 +2.8 +1.4 10.1% 0.73%
Dwight Gooden P NYY Free agency 1996 3 +2.4 +0.8 9.4% 0.69%
Dave Veres P HOU Trade 1994 2 +2.2 +1.1
Mitch Meluskey C HOU Trade 1995 2 +2.1 +1.1 -0.11
Dave Magadan 1B/3B HOU Free agency 1995 1 +1.9 +1.9 9.6% 0.69%
Joe Girardi C NYY Free agency 1996 3 +1.9 +0.6 4.4% 0.33%
Julio Lugo SS HOU Draft 1994 3 +1.7 +0.6
Russ Johnson 2B/3B HOU Draft 1994 3 +1.3 +0.4
Chili Davis DH/OF NYY Free agency 1997 2 +1.3 +0.7 0.5% 0.34%
Cecil Fielder 1B/DH NYY Trade 1996 2 +1.3 +0.6 -6.49 2.0% 0.15%
Sean Berry 3B HOU Trade 1995 3 +1.1 +0.4 -0.93 2.7% 0.22%
Mariano Duncan 2B/SS NYY Trade 1996 1 +0.9 +0.9 9.0% 0.64%
John Halama P HOU Draft 1994 1 +0.7 +0.7
Derrick May OF HOU Trade 1995 2 +0.7 +0.3 +0.68 9.7% 0.68%
Marcus Thames DH/OF NYY Draft 1996 1 +0.7 +0.7
Rick Wilkins C HOU Trade 1995 2 +0.7 +0.4 -0.30 1.9% 0.14%
Jeriome Robertson P HOU Draft 1995 1 +0.6 +0.6
Tim Raines OF NYY Free agency 1998 3 +0.6 +0.2 5.1% 0.38%
Mike Henneman P HOU Trade 1995 1 +0.5 +0.5 -7.73 2.4% 0.17%
Sid Bream 1B HOU Free agency 1994 1 +0.4 +0.4 1.5% 0.58%
Tony McKnight P HOU Draft 1995 1 +0.4 +0.4
Darren Holmes P NYY Free agency 1997 1 +0.4 +0.4 1.0% 0.65%
Willie Banks P NYY Free agency 1997 1 +0.3 +0.3 1.7% 0.16%
Homer Bush 2B NYY Trade 1997 1 +0.3 +0.3 -6.84
Randy Choate P NYY Draft 1997 3 +0.3 +0.1
Graeme Lloyd P NYY Trade 1996 1 +0.3 +0.3 -3.73 0.9% 0.61%
Tom Edens P HOU Trade 1994 1 +0.3 +0.3 1.8% 0.70%
Andy Stankiewicz 2B/SS HOU Trade 1994 1 +0.3 +0.3 1.8% 0.73%
Brandon Claussen P NYY Draft 1998 1 +0.1 +0.1
Juan Rivera OF NYY Intl FA 1996 1 +0.1 +0.1
Todd Erdos P NYY Trade 1998 2 +0.1 +0.0 +1.13 0.0% 0.00%
Jim Mecir P NYY Trade 1996 2 +0.1 +0.0 -2.51 0.2% 0.01%
Wally Whitehurst P NYY Trade 1996 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.3% 0.02%
Ross Powell P HOU Trade 1994 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0% 0.01%
Mike Aldrete 1B/OF NYY Trade 1996 +0.0 +0.00
Ryan Bradley P NYY Draft 1997 -0.0
Billy Brewer P NYY Trade 1996 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.1% 0.01%
Michel Hernández C NYY Intl FA 1998 1 +0.0 +0.0
Scott Seabol 3B NYY Draft 1996 -0.0
Mark Whiten OF NYY Free agency 1997 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0% 0.00%
Joe Borowski P NYY Trade 1998 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.3% 0.19%
Rey Sánchez 2B/SS NYY Trade 1997 1 -0.0 -0.0 -1.10 1.3% 0.12%
David Weathers P NYY Trade 1996 1 -0.0 -0.0 -0.77 0.5% 0.03%
Jerry Goff C HOU Free agency 1995 -0.1
John Johnstone P HOU Free agency 1995 -0.1
Craig McMurtry P HOU Free agency 1994 -0.1
Wilfredo Rodríguez P HOU Intl FA 1995 -0.1
Iván Cruz 1B NYY Trade 1997 -0.1
Drew Henson 3B NYY Draft 1998 -0.1
Tim McIntosh C/OF NYY Free agency 1996 -0.1
Mike Vento OF NYY Draft 1997 -0.1
Ken Ramos OF HOU Trade 1994 -0.2
Milt Thompson OF HOU Trade 1994 1 -0.2 -0.2 0.8% 0.31%
Luis Sojo 2B NYY Free agency 1997 3 -0.2 -0.1 1.0% 0.07%
Doug Brocail P HOU Trade 1994 2 -0.3 -0.2 0.0% 0.00%
Scott Pose OF NYY Free agency 1996 -0.3
Craig Shipley 3B/SS HOU Trade 1994 -0.4
Barry Wesson OF HOU Draft 1995 -0.4
Erick Almonte SS NYY Intl FA 1996 1 -0.4 -0.4
Dale Polley P NYY Trade 1996 -0.4
Randy Keisler P NYY Draft 1998 1 -0.5 -0.5
Jeff Tabaka P HOU Trade 1995 1 -0.5 -0.5 +0.38 0.9% 0.06%
Matt Howard 2B NYY Trade 1996 -0.6
Dale Sveum 3B/SS NYY Free agency 1997 -0.7
Ricky Gutiérrez SS HOU Trade 1994 -2.0

Trade-side columns: RFA is playoff-readiness percentage points added to the future roster foundation. It grades the franchise's entire side of a trade, so the same score repeats for every player acquired in that package. PPA/CPA remain player-level arrival-year probability points.

WAB = wins above what the team's payroll predicted (resource-controlled). WAR surplus = era-neutral value (WAR minus payroll in win-equivalents). Roster surplus $M = dollar value of WAR over cost. Build channels (realized fWAR): HG = home-grown via amateur draft / international signing; Trade = acquired minus surrendered (incl. purchases/waivers); FA = signed minus walked; R5 = Rule-5 / minor-league-draft pickups. Credit follows the acquisition year — home-grown to the regime at the player's draft/signing (not whoever was in the chair when he peaked), trade/FA/R5 to the GM who made the move. Players acquired as prospects before debuting (e.g. Smoltz, Bagwell; Rule-5 picks like Uggla) are counted as trade/R5, not home-grown. All are franchise-level outcomes during the stint, not solely attributable to one executive.

Graphs

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