RRosternomics
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Bob Watson

Apr 10, 1946 (Los Angeles, CA) – May 14, 2020 (Houston, TX) · died at 74

Became the first Black general manager to win a World Series, building the 1996 champion New York Yankees after running the Houston Astros.

5 seasons with salary-era data across 2 stints. All figures are franchise-level outcomes during the tenure, not solely attributable to one executive.

Overview

Titles2
Pennants2
Playoffs3
Record444–301
Win %0.596
+5.1GM WAR — wins above a replacement GM (org-adjusted, shrunk; per season) ±5.79th/195 execs
8.4Depth — 2+ WAR regulars per season (the breadth that drives TAB, not stars)16th/195 execs
-3.3Dead WAR — WAR/yr bled by sub-replacement players (closer to 0 = better)12th/195 execs
21%Dead money — payroll on <0.5-WAR players (lower = better)10th/195 execs
$10MCheap-talent surplus — $/yr of value from cost-controlled (pre-arb/arb) players above their pay; the selection engine, and the stickiest GM skill we track113th/195 execs
$6MDrafted surplus — cheap-talent surplus from his own draftees (the develop-from-the-draft engine)92nd/195 execs
$1MTraded-for surplus — cheap-talent surplus from cost-controlled players he acquired via trade113th/195 execs
$3MInt'l surplus — cheap-talent surplus from his own international signees35th/195 execs
+48.9TAB — talent above budget — roster-construction alpha (talent your budget bought above expectation), tenure total18th/195 execs
+49.5WAB — realized wins (TAB + the non-repeatable luck of converting talent to wins)17th/195 execs
4.25Acquisition Leverage — playoff pts per acquired WAR, graded once in the year each deal's wins arrive (the repeatable decision skill)10th/195 execs
-23Roster surplus $M82nd/195 execs

Tenure breakdown

TeamRoleYearsSzns WAB WAB/yr TAB WAR surp HG Trade FA R5 AcqLev W-L% POPenWS Surp $M
▸ Yankees GM 1996–1998 3 +38.6 +12.86 +25.8 -36.9 +20.1 -28.7 +8.1 +0.8 4.26 0.621 322 -35
▸ Astros GM 1994–1995 2 +11.0 +5.48 +23.1 +10.7 +9.3 -7.2 -2.3 +0.0 4.23 0.548 ––– +12
Career total (1985+ data) 5 +49.5 +48.9 -26.3 +29.4 -35.9 +5.8 +0.8 4.25 0.596 32 2 -23

Roster Construction

How the roster was sourced

by valueby volume

Share of acquired fWAR by channel vs. league average.

Build channels — net fWAR

Acquired minus surrendered / signed minus walked.

Home-grown (draft/intl)+29.4
Trade-35.9
Free agency+5.8
Rule 5 / minor draft+0.8
Sourcing mix: 30% draft · 45% FA · 25% trade · 0% R5

Roster value distribution — career average — depth vs. stars

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR, averaged across Bob Watson's seasons. Bars = his rosters; the black line = the league-average player at each slot. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge.

Players acquired — 79 players, by realized fWAR for the franchise (scroll for more)

PlayerPosTeam How Year Szns fWAR WAR/yr Lev
Mike Hampton P HOU Trade 1995 6 +19.2 +3.2 11.8
David Wells P NYY Free agency 1996 4 +17.0 +4.2 29.1
Tino Martinez 1B NYY Trade 1996 7 +16.0 +2.3 10.8
Orlando Hernández P NYY Intl FA 1998 6 +13.9 +2.3 –
Derek Bell OF HOU Trade 1994 4 +12.2 +3.0 9.0
Scott Brosius 3B NYY Free agency 1998 4 +8.7 +2.2 9.6
Mike Stanton P NYY Free agency 1996 7 +7.5 +1.1 8.9
Chuck Knoblauch 2B NYY Trade 1998 4 +7.0 +1.8 5.6
Scott Elarton P HOU Draft 1994 3 +5.2 +1.7 –
Jeff Nelson P NYY Trade 1996 6 +4.6 +0.8 5.8
Chad Curtis OF NYY Trade 1997 3 +3.7 +1.2 6.2
John Cangelosi OF HOU Free agency 1995 2 +3.5 +1.8 9.9
Hideki Irabu P NYY Draft 1997 2 +3.2 +1.6 –
Nick Johnson 1B NYY Draft 1996 3 +2.9 +1.0 –
Kenny Rogers P NYY Trade 1996 2 +2.8 +1.4 10.2
Dwight Gooden P NYY Free agency 1996 3 +2.4 +0.8 9.6
Dave Veres P HOU Trade 1994 2 +2.2 +1.1 –
Mitch Meluskey C HOU Trade 1995 2 +2.1 +1.1 –
Dave Magadan 1B/3B HOU Free agency 1995 1 +1.9 +1.9 9.7
Joe Girardi C NYY Free agency 1996 3 +1.9 +0.6 4.4
Julio Lugo SS HOU Draft 1994 3 +1.7 +0.6 –
Russ Johnson 2B/3B HOU Draft 1994 3 +1.3 +0.4 –
Chili Davis DH/OF NYY Free agency 1997 2 +1.3 +0.7 0.5
Cecil Fielder 1B/DH NYY Trade 1996 2 +1.3 +0.6 2.0
Sean Berry 3B HOU Trade 1995 3 +1.1 +0.4 2.7
Mariano Duncan 2B/SS NYY Trade 1996 1 +0.9 +0.9 8.9
John Halama P HOU Draft 1994 1 +0.7 +0.7 –
Derrick May OF HOU Trade 1995 2 +0.7 +0.3 9.6
Marcus Thames DH/OF NYY Draft 1996 1 +0.7 +0.7 –
Rick Wilkins C HOU Trade 1995 2 +0.7 +0.4 1.9
Jeriome Robertson P HOU Draft 1995 1 +0.6 +0.6 –
Tim Raines OF NYY Free agency 1998 3 +0.6 +0.2 5.1
Mike Henneman P HOU Trade 1995 1 +0.5 +0.5 2.3
Sid Bream 1B HOU Free agency 1994 1 +0.4 +0.4 1.5
Tony McKnight P HOU Draft 1995 1 +0.4 +0.4 –
Darren Holmes P NYY Free agency 1997 1 +0.4 +0.4 1.0
Willie Banks P NYY Free agency 1997 1 +0.3 +0.3 1.7
Homer Bush 2B NYY Trade 1997 1 +0.3 +0.3 –
Randy Choate P NYY Draft 1997 3 +0.3 +0.1 –
Graeme Lloyd P NYY Trade 1996 1 +0.3 +0.3 0.9
Tom Edens P HOU Trade 1994 1 +0.3 +0.3 1.8
Andy Stankiewicz 2B/SS HOU Trade 1994 1 +0.3 +0.3 1.8
Brandon Claussen P NYY Draft 1998 1 +0.1 +0.1 –
Juan Rivera OF NYY Intl FA 1996 1 +0.1 +0.1 –
Todd Erdos P NYY Trade 1998 2 +0.1 +0.0 0.0
Jim Mecir P NYY Trade 1996 2 +0.1 +0.0 0.2
Wally Whitehurst P NYY Trade 1996 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.3
Ross Powell P HOU Trade 1994 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0
Mike Aldrete 1B/OF NYY Trade 1996 – +0.0 – –
Ryan Bradley P NYY Draft 1997 – -0.0 – –
Billy Brewer P NYY Trade 1996 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.1
Michel Hernández C NYY Intl FA 1998 1 +0.0 +0.0 –
Scott Seabol 3B NYY Draft 1996 – -0.0 – –
Mark Whiten OF NYY Free agency 1997 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0
Joe Borowski P NYY Trade 1998 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.3
Rey Sánchez 2B/SS NYY Trade 1997 1 -0.0 -0.0 1.3
David Weathers P NYY Trade 1996 1 -0.0 -0.0 0.4
Jerry Goff C HOU Free agency 1995 – -0.1 – –
John Johnstone P HOU Free agency 1995 – -0.1 – –
Craig McMurtry P HOU Free agency 1994 – -0.1 – –
Wilfredo Rodríguez P HOU Intl FA 1995 – -0.1 – –
Iván Cruz 1B NYY Trade 1997 – -0.1 – –
Drew Henson 3B NYY Draft 1998 – -0.1 – –
Tim McIntosh C/OF NYY Free agency 1996 – -0.1 – –
Mike Vento OF NYY Draft 1997 – -0.1 – –
Ken Ramos OF HOU Trade 1994 – -0.2 – –
Milt Thompson OF HOU Free agency 1994 1 -0.2 -0.2 0.8
Luis Sojo 2B NYY Free agency 1997 3 -0.2 -0.1 1.0
Doug Brocail P HOU Trade 1994 2 -0.3 -0.2 0.0
Scott Pose OF NYY Free agency 1996 – -0.3 – –
Craig Shipley 3B/SS HOU Trade 1994 – -0.4 – –
Barry Wesson OF HOU Draft 1995 – -0.4 – –
Erick Almonte SS NYY Intl FA 1996 1 -0.4 -0.4 –
Dale Polley P NYY Trade 1996 – -0.4 – –
Randy Keisler P NYY Draft 1998 1 -0.5 -0.5 –
Jeff Tabaka P HOU Trade 1995 1 -0.5 -0.5 0.8
Matt Howard 2B NYY Trade 1996 – -0.6 – –
Dale Sveum 3B/SS NYY Free agency 1997 – -0.7 – –
Ricky Gutiérrez SS HOU Trade 1994 – -2.0 – –

WAB = wins above what the team's payroll predicted (resource-controlled). WAR surplus = era-neutral value (WAR minus payroll in win-equivalents). Roster surplus $M = dollar value of WAR over cost. Build channels (realized fWAR): HG = home-grown via amateur draft / international signing; Trade = acquired minus surrendered (incl. purchases/waivers); FA = signed minus walked; R5 = Rule-5 / minor-league-draft pickups. Credit follows the acquisition year — home-grown to the regime at the player's draft/signing (not whoever was in the chair when he peaked), trade/FA/R5 to the GM who made the move. Players acquired as prospects before debuting (e.g. Smoltz, Bagwell; Rule-5 picks like Uggla) are counted as trade/R5, not home-grown. All are franchise-level outcomes during the stint, not solely attributable to one executive.

Graphs

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Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.