NYY⇄OAK

NYYNYY Bob Watson net −$40.8M net +1.9

received +$6.4M+$6.4M ± $18M expected surplus · +$28.8M realized received 2.4 ± 2 expected · 8.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYY's 1998 odds 97% → 98% (+0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Scott Brosius3B·31y·R/R

+$6.4M+$6.4M± $18M exp surplusrealized +$28.8M 2.4± 2 exp WARrealized 8.7

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.9/yr over 2.0 seasons

Talent

1.27/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs × 0.95 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

OAKOAK Sandy Alderson net +$40.8M net -1.9

received −$22.4M−$22.4M ± $14M expected surplus · +$69.6M realized received 1.8 ± 2 expected · 6.8 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved OAK's 1998 odds 1% → 1% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Kenny RogersP·33y·L/L

−$22.2M−$22.2M± $14M exp surplusrealized +$69.6M 1.8± 2 exp WARrealized 6.8

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.7/yr over 2.7 seasons

Talent

1.27/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.95 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.