MIA⇄NYY

MIAMIA Dave Dombrowski net +$0.8M net +0.3

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $25M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · 0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIA's 1996 odds 27% → 30% (+2.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mark HuttonP·26y·R/R

+$2.0M+$2.0M± $25M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.3

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.3/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.23/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.94 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

NYYNYY Bob Watson net −$0.8M net -0.3

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $8M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 0.7 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYY's 1996 odds 55% → 51% (-3.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

David WeathersP·26y·R/R

+$2.7M+$2.7M± $8M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 0.7± 1 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

#82 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.6/yr over 1.8 season

Talent

0.44/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.