NYY⇄ANA

NYYNYY Bob Watson net +$0.8M net +0.3

received +$1.6M+$0.8M ± $7M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 0.6 ± 1 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYY's 1996 odds 49% → 51% (+1.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mike Aldrete1B/OF·35y·L/L

+$1.5M+$0.8M± $7M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.6± 1 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.8/yr over 1.4 season

Talent

0.53/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.82 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

ANAANA Bill Bavasi net −$0.8M net -0.3

received +$0.0M−$0.8M ± $6M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 0.1 ± 1 expected · -0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ANA's 1996 odds 2% → 2% (-0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Rich MonteleoneP·33y·R/R

−$0.1M−$0.8M± $6M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 0.1± 1 exp WARrealized -0.4

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.0/yr over 1.9 season

Talent

0.08/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.67 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.