NYY⇄SDP

NYYNYY Bob Watson net −$31.2M net +0.7

received +$3.2M+$3.2M ± $42M expected surplus · −$16.8M realized received 3.4 ± 5 expected · 3.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYY's 1997 odds 77% → 76% (-1.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Vernon MaxwellCF·20y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $28M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#50 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Homer Bush2B·24y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $26M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.3

Prior

#185 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Gordie Amerson

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $5M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Hideki IrabuP·28y·R/R

−$0.8M−$0.8M± $16M exp surplusrealized −$16.0M 0.7± 2 exp WARrealized 3.2

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.61 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

SDPSDP Kevin Towers net +$31.2M net -0.7

received +$82.4M+$82.4M ± $42M expected surplus · +$14.4M realized received 11.2 ± 5 expected · 2.8 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 1997 odds 1% → 1% (+0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Rubén RiveraOF·23y·R/R

+$73.1M+$73.1M± $34M exp surplusrealized +$14.4M 8.5± 4 exp WARrealized 2.8

Prior

Composite #9.0 pedigree (Baseball America #9 (1997)) → 1.12/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.1/yr over 0.3 season

Talent

1.55/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Rafael MedinaP·22y·R/R

+$9.2M+$9.2M± $26M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 2.7± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

Composite #64.0 prospect (Baseball America #64 (1997)) → 0.48/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.48/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.