HOU⇄CLE

HOUHOU Bob Watson net +$0.8M net +0.1

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $28M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.2 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved HOU's 1995 odds 51% → 52% (+0.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Matt WilliamsP·24y·B/L

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $28M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#98 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

CLECLE John Hart net −$0.8M net -0.1

received −$3.2M−$3.2M ± $46M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 0.0 ± 6 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CLE's 1995 odds 95% → 95% (-0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Eddie TuckerC·28y·R/R

−$3.0M−$3.0M± $46M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 0.0± 6 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

#126 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -2.2/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.01/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs × 0.75 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.