NYY⇄SEA

NYYNYY Gene Michael net +$20.0M net +17.9

received +$26.4M+$26.4M ± $42M expected surplus · +$48.0M realized received 7.1 ± 5 expected · 20.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYY's 1996 odds 42% → 51% (+8.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Tino Martinez1B·28y·L/R

+$19.3M+$19.3M± $28M exp surplusrealized +$44.8M 4.3± 4 exp WARrealized 16.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.28/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.3/yr over 2.0 seasons

Talent

2.17/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Jeff NelsonP·29y·R/R

+$5.4M+$5.4M± $18M exp surplusrealized +$4.0M 1.6± 2 exp WARrealized 4.6

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.1/yr over 2.3 seasons

Talent

0.79/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Jim MecirP·26y·B/R

+$2.0M+$2.0M± $26M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

#84 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.7/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.24/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.95 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

SEASEA Woody Woodward net −$20.0M net -17.9

received +$34.4M+$34.4M ± $45M expected surplus · +$28.0M realized received 6.4 ± 6 expected · 2.8 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SEA's 1996 odds 87% → 82% (-4.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Sterling HitchcockP·25y·L/L

+$29.1M+$29.1M± $38M exp surplusrealized +$40.8M 4.3± 5 exp WARrealized 2.7

Prior

Composite #84.0 pedigree (Baseball America #84 (1994)) — fell off 2 lists since, regressed — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.8/yr over 1.5 season

Talent

1.08/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Russ Davis3B·26y·R/R

+$5.3M+$5.3M± $25M exp surplusrealized −$12.8M 2.1± 3 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

Composite #78.0 pedigree (Baseball America #78 (1995)) — fell off 1 list since, regressed → 0.24/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.1/yr over 0.3 season

Talent

0.40/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.98 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.