ARI⇄NYY

ARIARI Joe Garagiola net +$4.0M net +1.4

received −$3.2M−$3.2M ± $26M expected surplus · +$2.4M realized received 0.0 ± 3 expected · 1.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ARI's 1998 odds 0% → 1% (+0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Andy Fox2B/SS·27y·L/R

−$3.0M−$3.0M± $26M exp surplusrealized +$2.4M 0.0± 3 exp WARrealized 1.5

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.7/yr over 0.6 season

Talent

-0.10/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

NYYNYY Bob Watson net −$4.0M net -1.4

received −$0.8M−$0.8M ± $34M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 1.3 ± 4 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYY's 1998 odds 98% → 98% (-0.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Todd ErdosP·24y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

#253 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.3/yr over 0.4 season

Talent

0.23/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Marty JanzenP·25y·R/R

−$3.0M−$3.0M± $26M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

Composite #40.0 pedigree (Baseball America #40 (1996)) — fell off 2 lists since, regressed — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.4/yr over 0.7 season

Talent

-0.02/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.